julien's baseball blog
skills-based analysis
Tuesday, July 29, 2003
what, exactly, is a river cat?
ok nobody is doing any respectable minor-league analysis, so i'm gonna have to do it myself. i don't know how minor-league wal con pow translates to major-league numbers; for now, we'll have to play by ear. i suspect that wal and con come down about 20 points, and pow stays the same, because how hard you hit the ball is how hard you hit the ball. for now, that's our working hypothesis. it will be adjusted according to whim.
the first thing we're gonna do is look at the teams highest in the standings in their respective leagues, starting with the pcl. waddyaknow, it's the sacramento river cats!
age ab wal con pow pra
*Koonce, Graham 1b 28 359 .184 .730 .362 6.51
*McMillon, Billy of 31 153 .105 .804 .352 6.13
McCarty, Dave 1b 33 352 .118 .798 .346 5.83
Crosby, Bobby ss 23 350 .123 .746 .355 5.62
*Grabowski, Jaso of 27 221 .105 .833 .333 5.40
Edwards, Mike of 26 319 .124 .824 .327 5.11
*Lockwood, Mike of 26 151 .074 .874 .325 5.06
*Johnson, Mark c 27 101 .205 .842 .310 5.01
Lopez, Luis 3b 29 374 .072 .864 .321 4.66
#Rose, Mike c 26 148 .196 .791 .312 4.51
#Melhuse, Adam c 31 147 .155 .782 .318 4.38
*Prieto, Chris of 30 269 .129 .881 .303 4.32
German, Esteban 2b 25 322 .125 .860 .300 3.89
Flores, Jose ss 30 281 .154 .865 .291 3.62
*Sellier, Brian of 25 67 .095 .776 .289 2.52
stats from baseball america. a * in front means lefty; # means switch-hitter. isn't that cool?
these are some good baseball players. graham koonce, the best hitter, could start for a number of teams. at 28, though, he's not a prospect, so he'll probably fade into obscurity.
billy mcmillon, dave mccarty, and adam melhuse are at the show. melhuse i don't know why. mark johnson is better.
bobby crosby is the super-prospect: a power-hitting shortstop. presumably he'll take over for tejada next year. they say he's untouchable, but if i were billy beane, i'd trade him. he'll have some good years, but that con is gonna bring him down. also if i were beane i'd do something about my anger-management problem. billy, if you're reading this, give me a job!
mike lockwood, with that high con, could still develop. if he does, he'll last. he's someone to keep an eye on. ditto for esteban german, but he's got a lot of work to do.
that's about it. brian sellier maybe. he hasn't played enough to evaluate. here are his numbers from midland:
sellier (aa) 271 .140 .801 .329 5.11
nope. not gonna make it.
age ab wal con pow pra
Harden, Rich 21 319 .101 .715 .330 3.77
Fikac, Jeremy 28 147 .075 .741 .330 3.81
Harville, Chad 26 205 .093 .732 .330 3.88
Duchscherer, Just 25 458 .021 .801 .330 3.93
Harang, Aaron 25 242 .066 .764 .330 3.97
Valentine, Joe 23 192 .162 .734 .330 4.55
Lehr, Justin 25 211 .094 .791 .330 4.57
Wood, Mike 23 253 .063 .822 .330 4.61
Hiljus, Erik 30 534 .084 .815 .330 4.74
Enochs, Chris 27 171 .119 .807 .330 5.00
1 Silva, Jose 29 104 .096 .827 .330 5.02
Castillo, Frank 34 372 .097 .841 .330 5.22
*Kusiewicz, Mike 26 41 .180 .780 .330 5.30
*Yarnall, Ed 27 158 .102 .861 .330 5.53
Smith, Roy 27 204 .146 .833 .330 5.64
the "1" in front of silva's name means he went somewhere else.
wow, there is a lot of talent here. remember when eric hiljus was the a's fifth starter? now he's the ninth-best pitcher on a triple-a team. eighth. richie already made it. hiljus and up are all major-league quality. joe valentine could be something special if he could get his walks down. but that's true about a lot of guys.
i can't believe jeremy fikac isn't in the bigs. must be an options thing.
look at the ages on these guys! chad harville is a stud. and justin duchscherer don't walk nobody! with the a's defense, that's a nasty combination. aaron harang is better than barry zito. that's not as surprising as it sounds. zito's having a bad year.
i feel bad for these river cats. most of them are good enough for the majors, but will never get that shot. they're the property of the oakland a's. it's better for baseball, or something.
this team would easily beat the detroit tigers.
my thinking on this has become so uptight!
we are settling into a tighter statline:
hitters and pitchers: ab wal con pow pra
at-bats you know. the rest i made up.
wal, con, and pow measure the three hitting skills: drawing walks, making contact, and hitting for power.
wal = (bb + hbp) / (ab + bb + hbp)
con = (ab - k) / ab
pow = .273 + .285 * ((tb - h) / (ab - k))
ed: pow has changed slightly.
they can be used to predict traditional metrics, like avg, obp, and slg:
pav = con * pow
pob = wal + (1-wal) * con * pow
psl = con * pow + con * (pow - .273) / .285
i'm working on a formula to account for speed, which is an important factor for certain extreme players, such as ichiro suzuki.
pra is predicted run average, ie how many runs a team of entirely that player would score in a game. it's based on bill james' runs created per 27 outs. ready?
pra = .9 * pob * psl * ab * 27 / ((1 - pav) * ab)
the pob * psl * ab part approximates runs created. the 27 / ((1 - pav) * ab) part is the "per 27 outs". the .9 is a scalar that accounts for other types of outs people get, like caught stealing and double plays. it'll make the hitters look worse, but it's closer to reality. a more precise formula, which will be used when the data allow, is:
pra = (bb + hbp + pav * ab - cs - gdp) / (ab + bb + hbp) * (psl * ab + .24 * (bb + hbp) + .62 * sb) * 27 / ((1 - pav) * ab + cs + gdp)
had enough? i have. for more information, and the mission statement, go here.
new blogs
rich's weekend baseball beat is a great blog that backs everything up with lots of numbers. i mentioned last week that ken griffey and frank thomas are hall-of-famers. he says the same, and proves it. plus, his page has a nice look to it!
also, jody gerut has a blog! he seems intelligent. i'm becoming a big fan of this guy.
wal con pow in use!
tim daloisio of musings from rsn did an analysis of manny ramirez that uses wal con pow. now those are some numbers i can understand!
i couldn't find a link to the particular article, but it's in the tuesday, july 29 section. the remarkable thing is manny right now is making more contact than ever before. the other remarkable thing is all that power.
of course he is also an on-base machine.
disclaimer: i said that con peaks at 23, but that's really just a guess. i have got to get this database built. there are so many questions to answer.
Monday, July 28, 2003
lookin' for a pickup?
stats are great, but if you're me, you wanna know who you can pick up that will help your fantasy team. with that in mind, here are some players that might have been overlooked. many don't have enough plate appearances to show up on leaderboards. some are young. all are presented here with meaningful numbers, thanks to our good friends wal, con, and pow:
ab wal con pow pav/pob/psl rc/27
ensberg,morgan 228 .146 .820 .374 .306/.408/.596 9.46
if word isn't out on this guy, you don't need my help. but i thought i'd mention him anyway. . . .
guiel,aaron 141 .113 .787 .376 .296/.375/.579 8.34
the sample size is small, but this kid keeps mashing. i didn't see him on any prospect lists. did you? not that i look that closely.
what else has he done?
2003 (AAA) 190 .148 .774 .345 .267/.375/.461 6.38
that's a little more reasonable. still, it's pretty good. does anybody know how to get minor-league stats from previous years?
stairs,matt 180 .118 .789 .369 .291/.375/.558 7.97
they're finally playing him, and the wonder hampster's for real.
johnson,nick 130 .212 .815 .343 .280/.432/.480 7.77
you know about nick johnson, right?
cabrera,miguel 111 .090 .793 .364 .288/.352/.541 7.23
that pow looks suspiciously high, considering the sample size.
same guy (AA) 266 .104 .816 .358 .292 .366/.537/7.50
it just occurred to me that i've never heard of this guy. he can mash, though. holy shit he's 20! keeper leagues, listen up! this kid is gonna make it. you know, he's probably not 20. when was his visa last renewed?
gerut,jody 264 .077 .848 .351 .297/.352/.529 7.14
are cleveland fans aware of jody gerut? he's 25, and he's got a shot at an mvp in 3 years.
feliz,pedro 152 .050 .796 .367 .292/.328/.555 6.95
pedro feliz is not that good. he's been lucky with home runs.
davanon,jeff 193 .085 .829 .346 .287/.348/.499 6.57
everybody knows about jeff davanon, right?
how 'bout some middle infielders?
kata,matt 123 .102 .805 .348 .280/.354/.491 6.51
polanco,placido 339 .101 .917 .322 .296/.367/.455 6.40
graffanino,tony 163 .109 .834 .338 .282/.360/.472 6.40
cintron,alex 233 .075 .936 .320 .299/.352/.454 6.16
cabrera,jolbert 193 .085 .819 .342 .280/.341/.476 6.09
the only guy getting full playing time is polanco, who i included because i can't believe he's producing. i'm a recovering baseball prospectus reader, and all they do is trash him. two d-backs make the list. kata is 25; cintron is 24. cintron is gonna be a star. he's actually playing full-time. and cabrera is blocked by alex cora. how long can that last? finally, i had to mention tony graffanino, who would've gone to some all-star games by now if someone had let him play.
catchers, anyone?
phillips,jason 230 .109 .883 .321 .283/.361/.431 5.86
hall,toby 286 .068 .937 .311 .292/.340/.418 5.41
phillips is playing first base, and he's catcher-eligible. at 26, he's got a future.
toby hall you probably know about. but he has had bad luck: .269/.314/.395. he will improve.
don't forget about the rookie of the year:
hinske,eric 253 .115 .759 .346 .262/.347/.456 5.80
and finally, some kids with a future:
broussard,ben 209 .095 .789 .339 .267/.337/.449 5.58
johnson,reed 210 .087 .876 .319 .280/.343/.423 5.43
mench,kevin 125 .094 .864 .321 .277/.345/.421 5.42
ages are 26, 26, and 25. mench is hurt right now. all will produce nice, big numbers over the next 5 years.
stats!
through 7-27:
player ab wal con pow pav pob psl rc/27
bonds,barry 281 .268 .843 .411 .347 .522 .756 16.32
pujols,albert 387 .114 .904 .374 .338 .414 .659 11.12
edmonds,jim 320 .144 .759 .408 .310 .409 .669 10.71
lopez,javy 293 .067 .816 .397 .324 .369 .679 10.00
sheffield,gary 369 .148 .911 .356 .324 .424 .590 10.00
helton,todd 399 .149 .872 .363 .317 .419 .592 9.80
lowell,mike 379 .114 .847 .374 .317 .395 .618 9.65
piazza,mike 111 .133 .865 .365 .316 .407 .595 9.54
griffey,ken_jr 166 .166 .735 .397 .292 .409 .611 9.53
delgado,carlos 384 .162 .763 .388 .296 .410 .603 9.47
thomas,frank 347 .182 .781 .378 .295 .423 .584 9.46
ensberg,morgan 228 .146 .820 .374 .306 .408 .596 9.46
ramirez,manny 383 .151 .851 .363 .309 .413 .578 9.33
giambi,jason 350 .217 .737 .382 .282 .438 .565 9.29
berkman,lance 350 .175 .817 .360 .294 .417 .542 8.65
boone,bret 400 .105 .823 .370 .304 .377 .584 8.56
rolen,scott 352 .154 .804 .366 .294 .403 .555 8.55
gonzalez,luis 393 .131 .893 .348 .311 .401 .545 8.54
wells,vernon 443 .067 .876 .363 .318 .364 .593 8.53
sweeney,mike 215 .183 .865 .345 .298 .427 .517 8.49
giles,brian 288 .198 .875 .340 .297 .436 .502 8.42
guiel,aaron 141 .113 .787 .376 .296 .375 .579 8.34
burnitz,jeromy 276 .095 .772 .383 .295 .362 .592 8.23
guillen,jose 307 .075 .805 .376 .302 .355 .592 8.13
posada,jorge 305 .204 .767 .361 .277 .424 .513 8.12
anderson,garret 410 .051 .868 .363 .315 .350 .588 8.11
hidalgo,richard 319 .104 .837 .361 .302 .374 .559 8.09
palmeiro,rafael 349 .145 .860 .347 .298 .400 .522 8.03
floyd,cliff 310 .129 .819 .359 .294 .386 .543 8.01
garciaparra,nom 433 .071 .917 .346 .317 .366 .553 8.00
stairs,matt 180 .118 .789 .369 .291 .375 .558 7.97
thome,jim 379 .165 .686 .391 .268 .389 .553 7.95
ordonez,magglio 391 .097 .872 .351 .306 .373 .544 7.89
klesko,ryan 304 .136 .803 .361 .289 .386 .536 7.87
nixon,trot 312 .133 .795 .363 .288 .383 .538 7.82
everett,carl 341 .119 .839 .354 .297 .380 .534 7.80
johnson,nick 130 .212 .815 .343 .280 .432 .480 7.77
varitek,jason 287 .095 .780 .374 .292 .359 .567 7.75
rodriguez,alex 397 .129 .781 .366 .286 .378 .540 7.72
sexson,richie 393 .157 .751 .369 .277 .390 .529 7.70
wilson,preston 416 .086 .769 .378 .291 .352 .574 7.69
dunn,adam 322 .187 .668 .388 .259 .398 .529 7.68
martinez,edgar 305 .157 .797 .355 .283 .396 .512 7.64
mueller,bill 322 .110 .848 .350 .297 .375 .527 7.58
ortiz,david 254 .115 .819 .357 .292 .373 .532 7.58
guerrero,vladim 194 .174 .861 .336 .289 .413 .480 7.54
drew,j.d. 199 .100 .849 .351 .298 .368 .529 7.48
walker,larry 312 .202 .801 .344 .275 .422 .474 7.45
jones,chipper 355 .151 .851 .340 .289 .396 .489 7.37
bagwell,jeff 392 .131 .809 .353 .285 .379 .513 7.34
huff,aubrey 401 .089 .853 .350 .298 .360 .528 7.32
lee,derrek 376 .149 .766 .360 .276 .384 .510 7.30
finley,steve 333 .107 .817 .355 .290 .366 .524 7.29
young,dmitri 369 .102 .764 .370 .283 .356 .543 7.28
sosa,sammy 299 .136 .692 .385 .266 .366 .537 7.23
cabrera,miguel 111 .090 .793 .364 .288 .352 .541 7.23
jones,andruw 390 .101 .790 .362 .286 .358 .532 7.20
gerut,jody 264 .077 .848 .351 .297 .352 .529 7.14
lawton,matt 323 .129 .867 .337 .292 .384 .487 7.13
gonzalez,juan 327 .052 .777 .375 .291 .328 .570 7.13
vidro,jose 344 .129 .913 .327 .299 .389 .473 7.10
alou,moises 386 .094 .912 .333 .304 .369 .495 7.09
fick,robert 267 .104 .899 .334 .300 .373 .491 7.05
chavez,eric 364 .101 .830 .349 .290 .362 .512 7.05
feliz,pedro 152 .050 .796 .367 .292 .328 .555 6.95
millar,kevin 346 .104 .809 .352 .285 .359 .511 6.93
byrnes,eric 324 .092 .858 .343 .294 .359 .504 6.93
rodriguez,ivan 323 .120 .820 .346 .284 .370 .495 6.90
beltran,carlos 316 .139 .851 .336 .286 .385 .472 6.87
durazo,erubiel 344 .175 .828 .334 .277 .403 .454 6.84
fullmer,brad 206 .120 .850 .338 .287 .373 .481 6.79
karros,eric 224 .093 .893 .333 .297 .363 .485 6.75
mientkiewicz,do 322 .110 .888 .331 .294 .372 .474 6.74
young,eric 346 .111 .922 .324 .299 .376 .463 6.71
conine,jeff 395 .088 .866 .339 .293 .355 .493 6.70
salmon,tim 354 .137 .825 .339 .280 .378 .472 6.70
mondesi,raul 361 .100 .817 .347 .284 .355 .497 6.66
myers,greg 226 .117 .836 .339 .284 .368 .478 6.63
abreu,bobby 370 .163 .768 .347 .267 .386 .467 6.63
glaus,troy 319 .128 .771 .353 .272 .366 .488 6.63
cabrera,orlando 408 .079 .895 .333 .298 .353 .487 6.62
mora,melvin 308 .144 .792 .344 .273 .378 .471 6.60
davanon,jeff 193 .085 .829 .346 .287 .348 .499 6.57
tejada,miguel 418 .079 .907 .329 .299 .354 .478 6.52
kata,matt 123 .102 .805 .348 .280 .354 .491 6.51
choi,hee_seop 172 .173 .674 .369 .249 .379 .475 6.47
spiezio,scott 316 .095 .873 .333 .291 .358 .474 6.46
ledee,ricky 177 .137 .774 .348 .269 .369 .473 6.45
giles,marcus 352 .107 .861 .333 .287 .363 .469 6.44
furcal,rafael 439 .091 .888 .330 .293 .358 .471 6.43
kent,jeff 304 .084 .836 .343 .286 .346 .490 6.42
polanco,placido 339 .101 .917 .322 .296 .367 .455 6.40
graffanino,tony 163 .109 .834 .338 .282 .360 .472 6.40
gonzalez,alex 352 .071 .832 .345 .287 .338 .497 6.37
gibbons,jay 387 .089 .853 .337 .287 .351 .479 6.36
munson,eric 280 .111 .821 .340 .279 .359 .472 6.35
hunter,torii 382 .099 .822 .342 .281 .352 .480 6.35
soriano,alfonso 451 .072 .809 .350 .284 .335 .503 6.35
koskie,corey 319 .140 .774 .346 .268 .370 .465 6.35
bradley,milton 334 .167 .805 .333 .269 .391 .439 6.33
cruz,jose 363 .156 .777 .342 .265 .380 .453 6.32
hernandez,ramon 308 .083 .838 .340 .285 .345 .483 6.29
sanders,reggie 285 .078 .719 .373 .268 .325 .521 6.25
payton,jay 391 .086 .877 .330 .290 .351 .466 6.22
castilla,vinny 363 .052 .857 .341 .292 .329 .496 6.22
blalock,hank 353 .073 .836 .342 .285 .338 .487 6.21
teixeira,mark 303 .114 .769 .350 .269 .353 .477 6.21
hillenbrand,she 315 .060 .876 .335 .293 .336 .484 6.21
vina,fernando 172 .075 .907 .326 .296 .349 .464 6.21
larue,jason 234 .124 .722 .361 .261 .352 .483 6.20
buchanan,brian 146 .110 .747 .357 .266 .347 .485 6.20
vanderwal,john 246 .131 .699 .366 .256 .353 .483 6.19
jenkins,geoff 383 .107 .731 .362 .264 .343 .491 6.19
banks,brian 108 .150 .731 .352 .258 .369 .461 6.19
cintron,alex 233 .075 .936 .320 .299 .352 .454 6.16
ibanez,raul 387 .076 .873 .332 .290 .344 .471 6.16
cordero,wil 288 .117 .840 .332 .279 .363 .452 6.15
lee,carlos 388 .067 .827 .343 .284 .332 .487 6.10
barrett,michael 198 .088 .828 .339 .281 .344 .473 6.10
kearns,austin 292 .136 .767 .344 .264 .364 .456 6.09
boone,aaron 393 .084 .817 .342 .280 .340 .478 6.09
cabrera,jolbert 193 .085 .819 .342 .280 .341 .476 6.09
valentin,jose 331 .117 .770 .347 .267 .353 .467 6.07
lofton,kenny 361 .077 .911 .322 .294 .348 .452 6.01
damon,johnny 409 .101 .885 .323 .286 .358 .443 6.00
white,rondell 338 .077 .837 .337 .283 .337 .472 5.99
williams,bernie 234 .143 .893 .315 .282 .384 .414 5.98
snow,j.t. 249 .159 .823 .326 .268 .384 .421 5.97
hammock,robby 106 .045 .792 .354 .281 .313 .507 5.97
renteria,edgar 397 .083 .909 .321 .292 .351 .446 5.96
stynes,chris 295 .122 .841 .328 .276 .364 .439 5.96
galarraga,andre 149 .080 .785 .349 .274 .332 .482 5.94
kielty,bobby 277 .155 .769 .337 .259 .374 .433 5.91
daubach,brian 133 .169 .752 .339 .255 .380 .427 5.89
lee,travis 327 .107 .832 .332 .276 .353 .447 5.89
berroa,angel 349 .079 .817 .340 .278 .335 .470 5.88
stewart,shannon 346 .087 .896 .322 .288 .350 .441 5.86
phillips,jason 230 .109 .883 .321 .283 .361 .431 5.86
johnson,charles 240 .124 .758 .345 .262 .353 .453 5.86
baerga,carlos 156 .055 .917 .323 .296 .334 .456 5.85
molina,ben 302 .041 .927 .323 .299 .328 .462 5.84
encarnacion,jua 397 .064 .879 .329 .289 .334 .460 5.84
hinske,eric 253 .115 .759 .346 .262 .347 .456 5.80
pierzynski,a.j. 306 .058 .889 .326 .290 .332 .457 5.76
martinez,tino 323 .103 .848 .327 .277 .352 .438 5.76
hatteberg,scott 363 .117 .901 .314 .283 .367 .412 5.69
wilkerson,brad 321 .153 .670 .360 .241 .358 .447 5.69
cameron,mike 356 .123 .719 .352 .253 .345 .453 5.65
randa,joe 292 .079 .873 .324 .283 .340 .441 5.64
grissom,marquis 400 .038 .860 .333 .287 .314 .469 5.58
broussard,ben 209 .095 .789 .339 .267 .337 .449 5.58
tucker,michael 364 .088 .777 .342 .266 .331 .456 5.55
schneider,brian 174 .130 .764 .337 .258 .354 .430 5.55
gonzalez,alex_s 377 .078 .804 .338 .272 .329 .455 5.54
ordonez,rey 117 .025 .897 .327 .294 .311 .465 5.53
mcgriff,fred 237 .092 .789 .339 .267 .335 .449 5.53
walker,todd 404 .073 .906 .317 .288 .340 .429 5.52
perez,eduardo 185 .115 .778 .336 .262 .347 .435 5.51
pena,carlos 254 .106 .748 .345 .258 .336 .447 5.47
clark,tony 167 .082 .689 .367 .253 .314 .480 5.46
burrell,pat 347 .143 .695 .351 .244 .352 .434 5.46
johnson,reed 210 .087 .876 .319 .280 .343 .423 5.43
mench,kevin 125 .094 .864 .321 .277 .345 .421 5.42
relaford,desi 322 .085 .870 .321 .279 .340 .425 5.42
patterson,corey 329 .046 .766 .352 .270 .304 .483 5.42
hall,toby 286 .068 .937 .311 .292 .340 .418 5.41
perez,eddie 228 .046 .868 .328 .285 .318 .451 5.41
catalanotto,fra 381 .059 .866 .326 .282 .325 .442 5.40
green,shawn 407 .089 .794 .336 .266 .332 .441 5.39
rowand,aaron 120 .070 .875 .322 .282 .332 .432 5.38
cruz,deivi 338 .017 .923 .321 .297 .309 .453 5.38
williams,matt 134 .113 .806 .328 .265 .347 .421 5.38
helms,wes 346 .101 .734 .347 .255 .330 .446 5.33
ramirez,aramis 394 .075 .827 .330 .273 .328 .438 5.33
santiago,benito 256 .062 .844 .328 .277 .322 .441 5.31
durham,ray 319 .121 .803 .326 .262 .351 .412 5.30
olerud,john 331 .142 .894 .306 .273 .377 .376 5.27
surhoff,b.j. 202 .056 .941 .311 .292 .332 .416 5.26
matsui,hideki 420 .081 .860 .321 .276 .335 .421 5.26
lecroy,matthew 193 .063 .762 .347 .264 .310 .461 5.25
burks,ellis 198 .132 .768 .331 .254 .352 .411 5.24
lieberthal,mike 316 .097 .889 .313 .278 .348 .401 5.22
garcia,karim 138 .048 .797 .340 .271 .306 .460 5.22
spivey,junior 223 .086 .758 .342 .259 .323 .443 5.22
loretta,mark 373 .092 .901 .311 .280 .347 .401 5.22
davis,ben 165 .088 .758 .341 .259 .324 .440 5.20
grace,mark 117 .114 .897 .308 .277 .359 .388 5.19
sierra,ruben 245 .086 .841 .323 .271 .334 .418 5.18
loduca,paul 372 .093 .895 .312 .279 .346 .400 5.17
batista,tony 391 .051 .821 .333 .274 .311 .448 5.17
kinkade,mike 139 .131 .791 .325 .257 .355 .401 5.17
jimenez,d'angel 340 .103 .832 .321 .267 .343 .409 5.16
casey,sean 385 .083 .901 .312 .281 .341 .403 5.16
martinez,ramon 171 .100 .865 .315 .273 .346 .402 5.16
giambi,jeremy 123 .185 .675 .342 .231 .373 .393 5.15
blake,casey 340 .086 .809 .329 .266 .329 .425 5.15
zeile,todd 178 .114 .803 .325 .261 .346 .407 5.14
alfonzo,edgardo 338 .103 .929 .304 .282 .357 .383 5.14
long,terrence 332 .067 .864 .321 .277 .326 .422 5.14
hollandsworth,t 209 .083 .756 .342 .258 .320 .440 5.13
simon,randall 258 .041 .903 .317 .286 .315 .426 5.08
biggio,craig 416 .103 .815 .323 .264 .340 .408 5.08
merced,orlando 161 .080 .876 .315 .276 .334 .407 5.07
jordan,brian 224 .108 .866 .313 .271 .349 .391 5.06
aurilia,rich 353 .066 .864 .320 .276 .324 .418 5.05
blum,geoff 304 .059 .878 .318 .279 .322 .417 5.03
hairston,jerry 157 .147 .879 .304 .267 .375 .363 5.01
ventura,robin 277 .121 .783 .326 .255 .345 .399 4.99
alomar,sandy 114 .026 .930 .313 .291 .310 .423 4.99
hafner,travis 130 .078 .723 .349 .252 .311 .445 4.98
suzuki,ichiro 436 .058 .901 .313 .282 .324 .408 4.97
gonzalez,raul 122 .129 .844 .312 .263 .358 .378 4.96
wooten,shawn 147 .093 .850 .316 .269 .337 .398 4.95
konerko,paul 270 .082 .889 .311 .276 .336 .395 4.94
jeter,derek 269 .106 .803 .323 .259 .338 .401 4.94
moeller,chad 212 .090 .755 .337 .254 .322 .424 4.94
matos,luis 225 .066 .818 .327 .268 .316 .423 4.93
monroe,craig 249 .074 .767 .337 .259 .314 .431 4.93
kendall,jason 379 .121 .921 .300 .276 .364 .363 4.93
cairo,miguel 161 .058 .882 .315 .278 .320 .408 4.89
roberts,brian 235 .103 .877 .309 .271 .346 .381 4.89
vizquel,omar 231 .105 .913 .303 .277 .352 .372 4.89
uribe,juan 184 .080 .826 .322 .266 .325 .407 4.86
witt,kevin 175 .059 .777 .336 .261 .305 .432 4.81
crede,joe 337 .074 .843 .318 .268 .322 .402 4.78
calloway,ron 231 .061 .766 .337 .259 .304 .432 4.77
estalella,bobby 126 .131 .611 .366 .223 .325 .422 4.77
guillen,carlos 265 .117 .830 .313 .260 .346 .377 4.76
grieve,ben 165 .187 .752 .317 .238 .381 .353 4.76
wilson,craig 161 .120 .683 .346 .236 .328 .410 4.75
young,michael 418 .052 .837 .323 .270 .308 .416 4.75
castillo,luis 391 .097 .913 .302 .276 .346 .368 4.74
franco,julio 144 .111 .813 .317 .257 .340 .382 4.73
zaun,gregg 101 .122 .891 .302 .269 .358 .358 4.72
burroughs,sean 327 .089 .838 .316 .264 .330 .390 4.72
phelps,josh 260 .119 .692 .343 .237 .328 .406 4.72
castro,juan 201 .038 .831 .326 .271 .299 .425 4.70
counsell,craig 185 .140 .886 .299 .265 .368 .346 4.68
beltre,adrian 342 .078 .819 .320 .262 .320 .396 4.63
bell,david 293 .131 .870 .302 .263 .359 .352 4.63
wigginton,ty 387 .072 .801 .324 .260 .313 .405 4.62
higginson,bobby 280 .122 .846 .307 .260 .350 .360 4.59
ellis,mark 347 .101 .824 .314 .259 .334 .377 4.58
wilson,vance 213 .066 .812 .322 .262 .310 .403 4.57
macias,jose 180 .063 .833 .319 .266 .311 .399 4.57
morris,warren 158 .060 .899 .307 .276 .319 .384 4.57
jones,jacque 339 .034 .788 .334 .263 .288 .431 4.55
harvey,ken 324 .064 .784 .328 .257 .304 .408 4.52
woodward,chris 281 .079 .794 .323 .256 .315 .395 4.51
kennedy,adam 258 .101 .829 .312 .258 .333 .371 4.50
rivera,juan 114 .066 .868 .310 .270 .317 .384 4.50
olivo,miguel 213 .074 .793 .324 .257 .312 .398 4.50
baldelli,rocco 403 .047 .797 .328 .261 .296 .415 4.49
everett,adam 208 .071 .822 .318 .261 .314 .391 4.49
bordick,mike 175 .074 .800 .322 .257 .312 .395 4.48
perez,timo 169 .082 .893 .303 .271 .330 .366 4.47
vizcaino,jose 143 .040 .867 .314 .273 .302 .398 4.47
norton,greg 139 .086 .784 .323 .253 .317 .390 4.46
overbay,lyle 227 .130 .736 .324 .239 .338 .371 4.44
grudzielanek,ma 383 .079 .867 .307 .266 .325 .371 4.43
mayne,brent 234 .082 .868 .307 .266 .327 .369 4.43
clayton,royce 337 .097 .810 .315 .255 .327 .374 4.43
chavez,endy 352 .046 .884 .310 .274 .307 .387 4.42
segui,david 224 .108 .790 .316 .250 .331 .371 4.41
hudson,orlando 317 .086 .817 .315 .257 .321 .377 4.41
dellucci,david 165 .118 .727 .328 .238 .328 .378 4.39
difelice,mike 136 .056 .824 .319 .263 .304 .395 4.39
eckstein,david 345 .102 .901 .298 .268 .343 .347 4.38
larkin,barry 192 .086 .880 .303 .267 .330 .361 4.38
ginter,keith 183 .103 .738 .328 .242 .320 .384 4.37
anderson,marlon 310 .086 .861 .306 .264 .327 .364 4.35
byrd,marlon 247 .105 .781 .317 .248 .327 .369 4.34
podsednik,scott 328 .101 .835 .307 .257 .332 .357 4.31
stinnett,kelly 142 .072 .754 .329 .248 .302 .396 4.29
rollins,jimmy 414 .070 .824 .314 .259 .310 .377 4.26
greene,todd 121 .024 .736 .343 .253 .271 .434 4.25
clark,brady 161 .064 .876 .305 .267 .314 .367 4.25
derosa,mark 156 .077 .788 .319 .252 .309 .380 4.24
o'leary,troy 132 .083 .833 .309 .258 .320 .364 4.23
alomar,roberto 332 .112 .861 .300 .258 .342 .340 4.22
winn,randy 381 .080 .824 .311 .256 .316 .367 4.20
gomez,chris 134 .029 .918 .303 .278 .299 .375 4.20
kotsay,mark 294 .109 .833 .304 .254 .335 .346 4.19
vazquez,ramon 266 .122 .812 .306 .248 .340 .342 4.19
kapler,gabe 112 .097 .786 .315 .248 .320 .364 4.18
pierre,juan 435 .088 .945 .290 .274 .338 .332 4.18
miller,damian 240 .111 .733 .323 .237 .322 .366 4.17
berg,dave 101 .047 .792 .323 .256 .291 .394 4.16
perez,neifi 221 .035 .932 .299 .279 .304 .365 4.16
valentin,javier 104 .037 .769 .330 .254 .281 .408 4.15
crisp,coco 177 .059 .893 .302 .269 .312 .360 4.15
cedeno,roger 273 .078 .821 .311 .255 .313 .365 4.15
mohr,dustan 264 .080 .705 .336 .237 .298 .392 4.13
singleton,chris 209 .067 .842 .309 .260 .309 .365 4.12
nady,xavier 332 .070 .807 .314 .254 .306 .371 4.11
belliard,ronnie 283 .107 .816 .306 .250 .330 .345 4.11
rolls,damian 180 .063 .778 .322 .250 .297 .384 4.11
diaz,einar 239 .063 .887 .301 .267 .313 .355 4.10
wilson,tom 192 .094 .661 .343 .227 .300 .388 4.06
blanco,henry 104 .071 .875 .301 .264 .316 .350 4.06
reboulet,jeff 155 .124 .800 .305 .244 .338 .334 4.04
rivas,luis 285 .078 .842 .305 .257 .315 .352 4.02
palmeiro,orland 219 .102 .904 .292 .264 .339 .323 4.02
mirabelli,doug 118 .033 .780 .326 .254 .278 .398 4.01
wilson,jack 352 .069 .861 .303 .261 .312 .352 4.01
torrealba,yorvi 145 .052 .800 .317 .254 .293 .378 4.00
cirillo,jeff 248 .101 .879 .295 .260 .335 .328 4.00
hocking,denny 104 .071 .769 .319 .246 .300 .371 3.97
reyes,jose 147 .020 .884 .306 .271 .285 .373 3.93
matheny,mike 308 .094 .812 .306 .248 .319 .343 3.93
inge,brandon 167 .092 .731 .322 .235 .306 .361 3.90
laker,tim 117 .033 .761 .327 .249 .274 .394 3.88
hart,bo 151 .068 .808 .310 .251 .302 .357 3.88
bloomquist,will 126 .100 .810 .304 .246 .321 .333 3.83
martin,al 171 .081 .801 .308 .247 .308 .346 3.82
sanchez,alex 372 .044 .860 .304 .262 .294 .356 3.82
barajas,rod 145 .040 .793 .318 .252 .282 .376 3.82
erstad,darin 229 .073 .852 .301 .256 .310 .339 3.82
mclemore,mark 212 .113 .774 .308 .238 .324 .332 3.82
womack,tony 251 .042 .876 .302 .264 .295 .352 3.81
matthews,gary 330 .073 .821 .306 .251 .306 .345 3.80
roberts,dave 228 .092 .912 .288 .263 .330 .311 3.76
christenson,rya 116 .115 .750 .309 .232 .320 .327 3.67
lugo,julio 280 .082 .786 .308 .242 .304 .338 3.67
halter,shane 217 .057 .760 .318 .242 .285 .362 3.66
gil,geronimo 157 .087 .809 .302 .244 .310 .327 3.63
osik,keith 162 .129 .815 .295 .240 .338 .302 3.62
perez,tomas 157 .065 .803 .307 .246 .296 .342 3.62
merloni,lou 111 .140 .748 .304 .227 .335 .308 3.61
cora,alex 324 .053 .855 .300 .256 .295 .337 3.61
kingsale,gene 120 .077 .858 .295 .253 .311 .320 3.60
hansen,dave 100 .167 .830 .287 .238 .365 .278 3.60
santiago,ramon 268 .095 .843 .294 .248 .319 .312 3.58
guzman,cristian 377 .043 .857 .300 .257 .289 .340 3.57
bellhorn,mark 209 .167 .689 .309 .213 .344 .299 3.53
bard,josh 206 .072 .801 .304 .244 .298 .331 3.52
phillips,brando 300 .042 .813 .307 .250 .281 .346 3.50
carroll,jamey 149 .086 .832 .296 .246 .311 .313 3.49
ausmus,brad 295 .087 .868 .290 .251 .316 .302 3.45
glanville,doug 188 .031 .872 .297 .259 .282 .334 3.44
shinjo,tsuyoshi 114 .058 .895 .290 .259 .302 .312 3.43
hernandez,jose 347 .084 .634 .336 .213 .280 .355 3.40
guzman,edwards 113 .034 .894 .293 .262 .287 .324 3.40
bautista,danny 181 .067 .829 .298 .247 .297 .319 3.39
mcdonald,john 152 .050 .842 .297 .251 .288 .323 3.35
dye,jermaine 150 .096 .800 .297 .237 .311 .304 3.35
wilson,dan 199 .048 .824 .301 .248 .284 .328 3.35
fordyce,brook 185 .061 .843 .295 .249 .294 .314 3.32
harris,lenny 129 .092 .853 .289 .246 .315 .293 3.30
lopez,felipe 197 .128 .701 .308 .216 .316 .302 3.29
tatis,fernando 175 .107 .771 .298 .230 .313 .299 3.28
mcewing,joe 156 .098 .776 .299 .232 .307 .302 3.27
bako,paul 110 .091 .755 .304 .229 .299 .311 3.26
bennett,gary 181 .072 .829 .294 .244 .298 .304 3.24
nunez,abraham_o 167 .092 .790 .297 .235 .305 .300 3.24
crawford,carl 370 .051 .795 .303 .241 .280 .325 3.23
owens,eric 141 .034 .894 .289 .258 .284 .308 3.18
goodwin,tom 134 .050 .828 .296 .245 .283 .312 3.16
mccracken,quint 157 .065 .841 .290 .244 .294 .295 3.09
easley,damion 107 .018 .832 .299 .248 .262 .323 3.04
izturis,cesar 360 .045 .864 .289 .249 .283 .297 3.02
torres,andres 132 .050 .803 .297 .239 .277 .307 3.01
robinson,kerry 110 .018 .900 .287 .259 .272 .304 3.01
sanchez,rey 174 .044 .897 .282 .253 .286 .282 2.91
febles,carlos 183 .090 .847 .282 .239 .307 .266 2.90
liefer,jeff 100 .038 .670 .324 .217 .247 .337 2.87
infante,omar 202 .082 .827 .283 .234 .297 .264 2.76
taylor,reggie 120 .063 .583 .338 .197 .247 .331 2.75
gil,benji 121 .032 .736 .305 .224 .249 .307 2.66
bragg,darren 102 .073 .784 .287 .225 .282 .265 2.60
walbeck,matt 111 .026 .793 .289 .229 .250 .274 2.40
reese,pokey 107 .078 .710 .292 .207 .269 .254 2.32
harris,willie 109 .044 .798 .283 .226 .260 .253 2.29
mateo,henry 100 .038 .810 .280 .227 .257 .247 2.21
ward,daryle 109 .027 .826 .276 .228 .249 .237 2.06
reggie taylor: 50 strikeouts in 120 ab. that's hard to do. the other surprising thing is there are 7 worse hitters than him.
Saturday, July 26, 2003
carlos baerga .056 .921 .324
from baseball prospectus:
His .323/.353/.484 line would fit right into the prime of his career, yet it comes on the heels of five consecutive seasons that are usually a prelude to retirement. His slugging percentages the past six years; .381, .396, .364, .314, .379, .484. Which of these is not like the other? Baerga's power surge hasn't coincided with an increased interest in the base on balls, which he still treats like a plague, but that flaw hasn't stopped him from being a productive hitter. Considering Arizona's success with coaxing quality production from veterans assumed to be washed up, it may be time to start investigating what exactly is in the desert water.
this analysis is based on bad numbers, but it is mostly correct. the .379 and .314 are small sample sizes, and in between he took two years off. so the last meaningful slg he put up was 1998. those things were considered, but not mentioned, in the analysis. the people at bp have enough experience with slugging percentage to know that .484 is high enough, after this much playing time, to mean something is up.
baerga's con and pow are higher than they've been since 1996, which was an unlucky age 27 year. at this point, we've got to suspect there's something real there. but after 152 ab, it's likely that that .921 and .324 are both at least a little high, and even if they're not, his avg should be .298, not .323. this is one old diamondback that's not gonna work out.
Friday, July 25, 2003
pete rose
i don't know what the fuss is all about; pete rose is in the hall of fame. he has more hits than anyone ever. don't tell me that's not the hall of fame.
what's that you say? there's a building in cooperstown that doesn't have his name on a placque? look at these numbers!
age yr g ab h wal con pow avg/obp/slg pav/pob/psl hus warp
22 1963 157 623 170 .088 .884 .305 .273/.334/.371 .269/.334/.367 4 4.4
23 1964 136 516 139 .069 .901 .291 .269/.319/.326 .262/.313/.318 7 2.8
24 1965 162 670 209 .103 .887 .316 .312/.382/.446 .280/.355/.415 32 8.1
25 1966 156 654 205 .055 .907 .319 .313/.351/.460 .289/.328/.436 24 6.7
26 1967 148 585 176 .092 .887 .319 .301/.364/.444 .283/.349/.427 18 7.5
27 1968 149 626 210 .087 .879 .317 .335/.391/.470 .278/.341/.412 57 9.9
28 1969 156 627 218 .129 .896 .325 .348/.428/.512 .292/.383/.456 56 10.7
29 1970 159 649 205 .104 .901 .322 .316/.385/.470 .290/.364/.444 26 8.8
30 1971 160 632 192 .101 .921 .309 .304/.373/.421 .285/.357/.402 19 8.5
31 1972 154 645 198 .110 .929 .307 .307/.382/.417 .285/.364/.395 22 11.5
32 1973 160 680 230 .095 .938 .303 .338/.401/.437 .284/.352/.383 54 10.9
33 1974 163 652 185 .145 .917 .305 .284/.385/.388 .280/.385/.384 4 9.4
34 1975 162 662 210 .131 .924 .308 .317/.406/.432 .285/.379/.400 32 6.8
35 1976 162 665 215 .122 .919 .312 .323/.404/.450 .287/.374/.413 36 8.5
36 1977 162 655 204 .098 .936 .310 .311/.377/.432 .290/.359/.410 22 5.2
37 1978 159 655 198 .090 .954 .309 .302/.362/.421 .294/.358/.414 8 5.9
38 1979 163 628 208 .134 .949 .303 .331/.418/.430 .287/.383/.386 44 6.4
39 1980 162 655 185 .099 .950 .295 .282/.352/.354 .280/.351/.351 3 3.5
40 1981 107 431 140 .102 .940 .293 .325/.391/.390 .275/.349/.340 50 3.5
41 1982 162 634 172 .103 .950 .293 .271/.345/.338 .278/.353/.344 -7 2.4
42 1983 151 493 121 .099 .943 .285 .245/.316/.286 .269/.341/.310 -24 0.6
43 1984 121 374 107 .103 .928 .289 .365/.430/.458 .280/.343/.331 6 2.7
44 1985 119 405 107 .182 .914 .290 .264/.395/.319 .265/.399/.319 -1 2.5
45 1986 72 237 52 .125 .869 .290 .219/.316/.270 .252/.346/.302 -32 0.1
total 4256
when he dies, they will put that placque on the wall. and he knows it. they might as well go ahead and do it. he's as good as dead to us, anyway.
in honor of the late hit king, i have invented a new stat. it's called hustle, or hus, and it is the amount by which a player's batting average exceeds his predicted batting average (pba). notice that pete's are always high. that's cause he hustled. also his contact is the highest i've ever seen.
the last column is wins above replacement position, a metric invented by clay davenport. it measures how many more games a team won than they would have with a typical replacement. anything over 10 is mvp-quality.
in your face, flanders!
jay jaffe of futility infielder wrote a highly positive review of my wal con pow system. jay you are the best!
this is very exciting. when i started this blog (just a month ago!) i had no idea anyone would wanna read it. now i feel like i have people i can exchange ideas with. together we can make baseball better for everyone.
also seeing my words on someone else's page has encouraged me to go back and do a tighter edit.
jay had some questions, which i'll answer here:
1. Where is the evidence that those numbers WAL, CON, and POW have meaning in small sample sizes, that, as you say "walks, strikeouts, and home runs quickly normalize to a level representative of players' abilities"?
2. Those "major-league averages" for referred for WAL, CON, and POW -- do they refer to 2003, the last few years, or a longer-range time period?
3. As far as the predictive value of this suite, can we see some comparisons based on prior seasons to see where these formulae worked and where they did not?
1. the evidence right now is at the level of "strong suspicion". what happened was i started paying attention to these numbers over the past few years in an attempt to predict performance for my fantasy team. what i noticed was that after about 100 ab for wal & con, 300 ab for pow, the numbers don't change.
i need to build a database. once that happens i'll have rigorous answers to all kinds of things. the problem right now is i don't have a computer! i've been blogging mostly at a university computer lab or at friends' houses.
2. major league averages came from 2002 data. i should note that on the site.
3. yes. that and more. all kinds of things will follow from the building of the database. for example, it's clear that there are players who consistently outperform their predicted average. all who do are slap-and-run speedsters. i've got ideas for a speed factor that i think will correct the predictions for speedsters. also i plan to tighten pow up a little bit, using recent years to dampen the variance. and i want to do a historical study to see at what age each each of the various skills peaks. right now it seems that con peaks early, around 23, pow peaks around 28 (although some players (bonds) can still increase at late ages. typically they are power/speed types (like bonds)), and wal increases throughout the career. with that data it will be possible to determine a player's future career path with quite a bit of precision.
. . . should i have said "those data"? i know data is plural, but it sounds so weird.
i'm a little giddy right now. i'll write more when i calm down.
Thursday, July 24, 2003
baseball news
what a great blog! now i don't have to deal with espn.com's bullshit anymore because he links every rob neyer column. also i don't have to read baseball prospectus because he summarizes their arguments. not fully, but enough to know i don't care. i got a new first surf spot.
how to philosophize with a hammer
tom verducci of si is a typical idiot sports columnist. i don't know why i read his column, but i did, so now i have to smash it to tiny pieces.
whatever he starts off with some stuff about how barry bonds is an asshole. what else is new?
then there are some letters regarding the hall of fame:
I know they still have plenty of years left, but what do you think of the Hall of Fame chances for the following players: Gary Sheffield, Edgar Martinez and Juan Gonzalez?
--Derrick S., Casper, Wyo.
Tough calls, all of them. I can't say any of the three is a lock right now, so their candidacies are still in doubt. Sheffield has a good chance if he gets to 500 home runs, which means he would need to have a few more years like the one he's currently having. Martinez is a borderline candidate. He's hurt by being a DH and by starting his big-league career at a later age than most players, which, combined with injuries, have held down his overall career numbers. Gonzalez should get to 500 home runs, which has been a magic number for enshrinement.
the bbwaa probably thinks the order of greatness is this: gonzo sheff martinez. actually, they got it backwards. edmart has had one great season after another, and deserves to be the first dh in the hall of fame. harold baines sure as hell don't. gary has been great for a long time, but he hasn't been noticed because of injuries and pitcher's parks. he's the borderline one. and juan gone, despite the cool nickname, has been one of the most overrated players of his generation. he didn't deserve either of the mvp's he won. he played in a hitter's park and was an out machine. but those are the players the writers love.
the 500-hr club is not a magic number anymore. so many active players will reach it that it will lose its meaning.
here's the other one:
Do you see similarities in the careers of Don Mattingly, Ken Griffey Jr. and Frank Thomas? All three had brilliant starts, but then limped along as mediocre players for the second half of their careers. Donnie Baseball probably won't end up in Cooperstown. Do you think Thomas and Griffey might not end up there, either?
-- Stuart Lutz, Jersey City, N.J.
There are similarities among the three, but Griffey and Thomas had more "Hall of Fame" seasons than Mattingly before they got hurt. I still think Griffey and Thomas have a real good shot at Cooperstown. Mattingly never did recover his power or that great torque in his swing. There's no reason Thomas and Griffey should be diminished like that. They can come back with big seasons.
he's mostly correct here, but he stops short of saying anything. thomas and griffey are already in the hall. and mattingly is just another overrated yankee. and frank---not can---is coming back with a good season.
the next letter is about tom glavine. why did tom go to the mets? didn't he know they suck? look, first of all, baseball players don't think about who sucks. teams change all the time. sometimes they suck and sometimes they're good. he went to the mets because the mets paid him. the braves weren't going to, so he had to leave.
instead of reporting the truth, verducci tries to be a psychologist, which is laughable. glavine felt more comfortable around the old players, he says. glavine wants to make the hall. glavine blah blah blah, blah blah blah. some of these things may be true, but they're not the reason he moved. the reason he moved was he needed a job. this is not an uncommon event in people's lives. when you need a job, you look at your offers, and you decide where you want to live. i'd rather live in new york than philadelphia, too.
then there are some other letters that are either vacuously correct or noncommittal. why do people read this crap? is there nothing better? there's definitely better stuff. maybe they're too lazy to find it. or maybe they think the si or the espn.com next to the name makes them important.
i'm gonna shut up now.
note to nietzsche fans: you may think the twilight of the idols reference is incorrect, with the "tiny pieces" comment. think again.
plague of injuries
aziz from atlanta:
I swear I can't remember a season that's had as many significant injuries to big name players.
I mean, here's a partial list of players that have missed at least a month (or will).
Randy Johnson
Curt Schilling
Matt Morris
AJ Burnett
Trevor Hoffman
Robb Nen
Jason Isringhausen
Tony Armas, Jr.
Josh Beckett
Roy Oswalt
Sammy Sosa
Brian Giles
Vladimir Guerrero
Phil Nevin
Ken Griffey, Jr.
Corey Patterson
Mike Piazza
Jeff Kent (not quite a month)
There are so many more, but these are just the big names. What makes this more interesting is that the list above is entirely made up of NL players.
that's some list. one thing to notice is most of these players are on the wrong side of 30, with the heart-wrenching case of corey patterson the notable exception. it certainly does seem like there are more over-30 stars than there used to be. i know bill james has studied the issue. has anyone done it recently?
the nl grandpa concentration suggests that the apty-named junior circuit will soon take over. it's like the cycle of chinese dynasties. ok maybe not but look at all the teams loaded with tiny mashers: oakland toronto minnesota cleveland. oh yeah the royals. gotta give 'em props. and even the orioles and devil rays have some people. (yes those devil rays.)
prediction: next year, the rays beat the o's. earth-shattering, i know.
hide the children! we don't know what he's capable of!
baseball v. sabermetrics
steve from oregon:
I loved your take on 'Moneyball'. As a big A's fan I wish the son of a bitch would have never been written. Now every g.m. in baseball is laying to screw up ANY deal that might help the A's. Beanes' sharp but he had fortuna rota swing his way big with the big three and Chavez and Tejada all happening at once at less money per year together than Jeter makes. So when Lewis was wondering how a team with such a small payroll could win so many games, well, THAT'S HOW! I could have told him that and he wouldn't have had to write the book. This year the A's have no drama which is why teams win a lot of games. All that Bill James bullshit is after the fact stuff, like a Mr. Moto solving a murder with clues left behind. The book should have been called 'Mummyball' cause that's how they hit. I'm glad you started a blog.
thanks for the kind words, steve. but i think you're taking my arguments farther than i would. zito mulder hudson chavez tejada (and now byrnes) is some ridiculous luck, but when you build the kind of farm system the a's have, you get more lucky than other teams. so it's a little of both. one thing i'm trying to do here is meld the understanding that baseball people have with the things statistics can tell us. numbers people sometimes say things that are flat wrong, as anyone who played the game knows. but they also sometimes find value where others wouldn't. my goal is to find ways to communicate those values to people without a statistics degree, and also to tell number crunchers when they're idiots. i hope you'll keep reading and let me know how i do.
fantasy advice
felix from stuttgart:
i got proposed this trade. i think i should maybe accept.
i get:
Dunn, Adam
Wells, Vernon
Garcia, Freddy
i give up:
Giles, Brian
Millwood, Kevin
the stats are:
hitting: R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
pitching: IP W SV ERA WHIP K/9.
what do you think?
that's a close one, felix. garcia millwood i would say ip w era will be similar, with millwood better on k/9, whip. wells and dunn i like a lot, although obviously giles is one of the baddest muthafuckas on the planet.
if you have a slot you need to fill, do it, but you're giving up the two best guys in the trade.
actually i would keep mill & giles and pick up aaron guiel, who is mashing in kansas city.
Wednesday, July 23, 2003
matt morris is hurt
yeah yeah it's not news anymore. but the cardinals are done. astros win the central. wild card? d-backs. larry bowa's gonna get fired.
rob neyer wrote a column about the wants and needs of this year's contenders. it's good, as usual. here are my comments:
first, the a's:
And then there's Beane. I think the world of Billy, but if he can fix what ails the A's lineup, we should let him rule the world. The A's, who worship at the twin altars of on-base percentage and slugging percentage, rank 10th and 11th in the American League in those categories. Not coincidentally, they're 10th in runs scored. There is reason to think that many, and perhaps most, of Oakland's hitters are better than they've played, and will improve over the next couple of months. Still, Beane has to be thinking about first base. And right field. And left field.
this is nitpicky, but it is not the case that the a's worship at the twin altars of on-base percentage and slugging percentage. the a's worship at the altar of underappreciated value. this year, it's defense. the a's have the best defense in the majors. it helps that they have 3 center fielders in the outfield. and scott hatteberg is a swiffer at first (get it? everything sticks!)
what? those are the 3 positions neyer said need help. ok, but he's still right, sort of. the a's need one more hitter. who'da thunk it? then singleton can be the fourth outfielder. that's still a lot of playing time.
incidentally, what's wrong with hatteberg? he currently sports a .256/.339/.372 avg/obp/slg. is he dead?
hatteberg,scott 324 .115 .898 .311 .280/.362/.400 5.43
no, he's just resting.
tejada and chavez have also been unlucky:
chavez,eric 323 .098 .836 .347 .290/.359/.507 6.92
tejada,miguel 375 .074 .909 .330 .300/.352/.481 6.53
compare that to .258/.332/.475 and .249/.307/.423, respectively.
hell, let's run the whole team:
hernandez,ramon 275 .086 .840 .336 .282/.344/.468 6.05
durazo,erubiel 304 .174 .816 .333 .271/.398/.443 6.53
ellis,mark 309 .104 .819 .318 .260/.338/.390 4.80
byrnes,eric 301 .099 .860 .345 .296/.366/.512 7.20
long,terrence 291 .067 .866 .324 .280/.329/.435 5.37
singleton,chris 183 .066 .836 .310 .259/.309/.369 4.15
everyone has had bad luck but singleton. he's .279/.321/.386. that streches your meaning of good luck. oops durazo has been lucky by .021 of ops. sorry. long has had the worst of it, at .252/.300/.404.
this team will score more runs. their park is a canyon, but it don't matter. the a's will win the west. and the red sox will win the east (sox fans hate me right now.) sadly, i don't think the mariners will take the wild card (now yankee fans hate me too. assuming they caught the slight. ooh! i'm gonna pay for that!)
so i guess we're gonna have to let beane rule the world. that's not an attractive prospect. come to think of it, he couldn't do much worse than those currently in power. . . .
don't tell anybody i said that.
about the expos, rob says ". . . they're terrible at three spots: third base (Fernando Tatis), catcher (Michael Barrett), and center field (Endy Chavez). I think at least two of those guys will improve, . . ."
ok, which one?
tatis,fernando 175 .107 .771 .298 .230/.313/.299 3.28
barrett,michael 169 .096 .834 .336 .280/.349/.463 6.07
chavez,endy 327 .044 .887 .309 .274/.306/.388 4.41
the answer is . . . all of them. although in tatis's case, he still shouldn't be on the team. improving a .194 avg will not impress anyone. but chavez is at .251/.285/.359, and should go up. and barrett, at .199/.268/.382, has got to start praying to a new god, because the one he has ain't workin'. i suggest baal.
michael barrett is one of the top 6 catchers in the league. and i'm not saying that because i've had him on 3 fantasy teams (no, not last year, and no, not 1999. i'm not bitter. why do you think i'm bitter?)
piazza,mike 111 .133 .865 .365 .316/.407/.595 9.54
lopez,javy 261 .068 .808 .389 .315/.361/.644 9.16
rodriguez,ivan 293 .112 .816 .348 .284/.364/.499 6.85
hammock,robby 103 .046 .816 .354 .289/.322/.522 6.38
larue,jason 205 .128 .707 .363 .257/.352/.481 6.16
barrett,michael 169 .096 .834 .336 .280/.349/.463 6.07
robby hammock probably is not that good. that pow is suspect with that sample size. and there's a big dropoff after #2(javy lopez!). but there it is. if you count piazza and hammock each as 1/2, then barrett's #5. next is his teammate, brian schneider.
next comment, braves pitching:
With even Vinny Castilla hitting reasonably well, the Braves' lineup is set for the duration. And of course, the Braves do have the best record in the majors. Which isn't to say they're perfect. Not when starter Shane Reynolds sports a nifty 5.77 ERA. Then again, the Braves' lead in the East is safe, and there's no reason for Reynolds to even make the postseason roster, let alone pitch in October. So aside from possibly adding somebody who can pinch-hit in October, there's really no reason for John Schuerholz to do anything.
era . . . you just can't do anything with it. the implication here is that aside from reynolds, the staff is good.
what do you think?
maddux,greg 126.1 .050 .852 4.70 5.56
ortiz,ramon 112.1 .083 .871 5.32 5.37
ramirez,horacio 99 .096 .846 5.21 4.55
hampton,mike 91 .118 .849 5.55 5.54
reynolds,shane 94 .095 .865 5.41 5.74
the second-to-last number is predicted run average. the last number is actual run average (pre-all-star break). so maddux is the best starter. but he's not great. and the rest of these guys are chumps. the braves could really use a front-line starter in the playoffs. it wouldn't hurt for the regular season, either. but front-line starters don't grow on trees. who made up the term "front-line starter", anyway?
that's all the time i have for today. tomorrow, reader mail.
it's been a week since i posted stats. am i gonna update them? no! players don't change in a week. i got more important shit to do.
i forgot to put in that last post that i think matt bruback is a little better than ben does and i also say no way is aramis ramirez gonna make it.
you know what i take it back about bruback. but not ramirez:
ramirez,aramis 354 .081 .819 .330 .270/.329/.434 5.29
his contact will soon become untenable and unless he juices his power won't be high enough. he won't make it because third base is now a hitter's position. this is the year. look for the article soon.
trades! hey, trades!
ben jacobs over at universal wrote a good article on yesterday's trades.
the trades were:
1. pittsburgh ramirez lofton $$$ to cubs for hernandez bruback ptbn
2. pittsburgh sauerbeck gonzalez to cubs for lyon martinez (anastacio, not pedro)
3. san diego orosco to yankees for something.
my comments:
1. pittsburgh wins
2 & 3. who cares (that's basically what ben says, but he backs it up with intelligent analysis. i can't tell you what a pleasure it is to read a baseball article and see stats that have meaning. he says he works at a newspaper. i hope they let him write. ben, what do you do over there? computers? they probably won't let you write. they can't replace you.)
---ed. note: ben says he does write, but no column, only local coverage. we're rootin' for ya, ben!
back to (1). everybody says cubs win but ben says not so fast! his main points are yeah ramirez had that good 2001 but he's sucked since and he gets $3 mil this year $6 mil next year. so unless that cash is a pile the cubs are bitches. he also says lofton hernandez bruback . . . (yawn) and whoever that ptbn is he's gravy. i saw on rotoworld that it might be bobby hill but now i can't find the link. plus my browser crashed. fuckers.
anyway if it is bobby hill it's a serious ass-raping. sorry about that image. you can move the hyphen to between "serious" and "ass" if you want. i guess that doesn't make it much better. i like ben's cool blue backgrounds with white text. it's very pleasing. it hurts the eyes to stare at a glaring white screen all day. maybe i'll change my look.
Tuesday, July 22, 2003
bobby hill (AAA) 327 .094 .823 .316 .260/.330/.386 4.65
spring, 2002, bobby hill was a hot prospect. he had a shot at the starting 2b job. the trib did a feature on him. he got sent down.
spring, 2003, bobby hill was a hot prospect. he competed with mark grudzielanek for the starting job. he got sent down.
was he over-hyped or unlucky?
a little of both. but he sure as hell beats grudzielanek:
grudzielanek,mark 339 .084 .861 .305 .263/.325/.360 4.28
hill has a better eye and better power. plus he's 25, and will improve.
bobby hill, 2002 190 .082 .779 .317 .247/.309/.368 4.08
that was last year. the year he was a bust. but he was almost as good as cruddy-lanek, and he was 24. he's better than that now. the cubs can't see it.
he'll be above major-league average starting next year, followed by a nice peak, then a slide into obscurity. oh wait, it's the cubs. they'll sign him to a giant multi-year contract.
i read moneyball, by michael lewis, and it's a great book. he's a good storyteller, and it helps to spread the gospel of baseball truth. it fights the perceived importance of stats like batting average and era, and tells those who didn't know already to read as much bill james as possible. it tells you who's smart and who's stupid in baseball, and how things really work on the inside. it's entertaining. it's well-researched. it's well-organized.
but it's a bad baseball book.
the problem is michael lewis doesn't know anything. worse, he doesn't know anything and he pretends like he knows everything. he talks up and down about how baseball commentators are idiots, then has long passages where he sounds like one. he rails against assigning meaning to things that cannot be measured, then goes on and on about mental aspects of the game. to him, scouts are the three stooges, and a guy with a computer is the savior. the reality is that both are helpful and important.
you see, he's got this whole hero-worship thing going. billy beane is the star of the show, the wunderkind, who waves his magic wand and wins baseball games. what he is is someone who has an understanding of the game and a talent for deal-making. the whole book is like that: larger-than-life. lewis even sensationalizes beane the asshole. i'm sure beane's an asshole, but he's probably just a regular asshole like everyone else.
so there's the good guys and the bad guys. the good guys do regression analysis; the bad guys sit around and spit tobacco. the good guys are here to save baseball from these morons who are trying to ruin it.
he sounds like he knows a lot about finance. i don't know about finance but i believe he does. so he takes these things he's learned about finance and applies them to baseball. great, that's going to add to what we know. people in finance will especially appreciate it. but don't act like you know everything, michael, because you don't.
billy beane 301 .035 .735 .303 .222/.250/.299 2.59
career, 1984--1989. he struck out too much. and didn't walk enough. and didn't hit the ball hard.
Wednesday, July 16, 2003
holy shit i forgot to write about rickey henderson
i can't believe it took this long for someone to realize he has value. kudos to the dodgers. since when do i say "kudos"?
in honor of the greatest leadoff hitter ever, let's run his career:
yr tm ab wal con pow avg/obp/slg rc/27 sb-cs
1979 oak 351 .088 .889 .293 .261/.326/.323 3.85 33-11
1980 oak 591 .165 .909 .303 .276/.395/.372 5.48 100-26
1981 oak 423 .131 .839 .313 .263/.360/.381 5.02 56-22
1982 oak 536 .178 .825 .313 .258/.390/.374 5.31 130-42
1983 oak 513 .167 .844 .316 .267/.390/.396 5.68 108-19
1984 oak 502 .146 .839 .329 .276/.382/.441 6.29 66-18
1985 nyy 547 .153 .881 .338 .298/.405/.499 7.78 80-10
1986 nyy 608 .128 .867 .341 .295/.385/.501 7.39 87-18
1987 nyy 358 .183 .855 .342 .292/.422/.499 8.02 41-8
1988 nyy 554 .129 .903 .303 .273/.367/.367 5.00 93-13
1989 n/o 541 .189 .874 .314 .275/.412/.400 6.13 77-14
1990 oak 489 .166 .877 .355 .311/.425/.563 9.38 65-10
1991 oak 470 .173 .845 .325 .275/.400/.430 6.41 58-18
1992 oak 396 .193 .859 .331 .284/.423/.458 7.30 48-11
1993 o/t 481 .200 .865 .334 .289/.431/.474 7.75 53-8
1994 oak 296 .196 .848 .308 .291/.406/.366 5.43 22-7
1995 oak 407 .150 .838 .323 .271/.380/.418 5.89 32-10
1996 sdp 465 .212 .806 .309 .250/.409/.353 5.19 37-15
1997 a/s 403 .194 .789 .307 .242/.389/.337 4.67 45-8
1998 oak 542 .179 .790 .313 .247/.382/.358 4.90 66-13
1999 nym 438 .158 .813 .326 .265/.381/.416 5.81 37-14
2000 s/n 420 .173 .821 .298 .245/.375/.316 4.24 36-11
2001 sdp 379 .176 .778 .318 .248/.380/.372 5.08 25-7
2002 bos 179 .175 .737 .323 .238/.371/.366 4.82 8-2
we all know he's the all-time career leader in walks, runs, and stolen bases. he's also the active career leader in hits (3,040). and he has 295 home runs. my favorite record of his is home runs to lead off a game. he's got like 60, where second place is 30 or so. someone look that up for me.
other things to bear in mind:
1. he played in a low-offense time ('til '93), in mostly pitcher's parks.
2. those rc/27's are strictly masher numbers (look at 1990 . . . zounds!) he's one of the few players in history whose baserunning had a significant effect on his value. his career stolen base rate is 81%! overall, he created 101 runs just from base stealing. that's another .33 you can add to his rc/27 every year.
3. that 130 stolen bases in 1982 is the record.
4. oakland coliseum in the early 80's was the toughest place to steal a base in the history of baseball.
"I always felt this day would come. I'm happy that the Dodgers gave me this opportunity to continue playing baseball. … Whatever role they want me to play, I'm willing to play to help this team win."
he's still playing, and he's already immortal.
what a surprise
from the associated press:
CHICAGO -- The Montreal Expos could play their entire home schedule in Puerto Rico next season under a plan being considered by major league baseball.
i didn't see that coming. did you? nobody did. this is straight out of left field.
kidding aside, they should do it. they'd have to move the fences back in hiram bithorn. and put in grass. otherwise they're chumps. oh, wait a minute . . .
it makes sense that people like avg hr rbi. it's easy, and it gives you an approximate read on a player's contact and power abilities. but con and pow do those things precisely. add walk percentage and you have the whole picture.
you know, the yankees have serious weaknesses that people aren't really talking about. they're old and injury-prone, and they play terrible defense. and derek jeter sucks. don't be surprised if the red sox take the division. remember, you heard it here first.
alfonso soriano is among the league leaders in many categories. people take that to be a preponderance of evidence and trumpet his excellence. but it's because he gets so many at-bats.
soriano,alfonso 407 .077 .813 .350 .284/.340/.503 6.44
soriano makes contact, and hits for power, but he needs to walk more to be great. that will reduce his at-bats, of course, taking him off the leaderboards. but it will help in the most important category: wins.
i was almost finished with my blue jays article when my browser crashed. i don't have the heart to write it again. it was crappy anyway. main points: lineup good (no dogs), rotation ok, bullpen bad. vernon wells is a motherfucker; halladay's a horse; scott service was a steal (off waivers from the diamondbacks). escobar's gonna work out, so is lopez (aquilino), once he gets his walks down.
that's about it. jp ricciardi is smart.
instead i'm gonna write about the fleecing of the twins. shannon stewart for bobby kielty! the twins never knew what they had with kielty. i'm psyched cause i've got him on my fantasy team. now he'll get full playing time.
stewart,shannon 303 .085 .901 .322 .290/.350/.445 5.93
kielty,bobby 238 .159 .765 .336 .257/.375/.425 5.78
jp sums it up: "We've got this guy for the next four years before he can become a free agent. This is basically getting Shannon Stewart from the start all over again.''
they're basically the same player, right now. but stewart is only good for one year, unless you wanna pay him $6.2 million again. and he's 29, past his peak. kielty is 26, so he's gonna get better. the jays will have him all the way through his prime, and then drop him when he gets expensive. it is good to be the king.
let's look at that lineup:
kielty,bobby 238 .159 .765 .336 .257/.375/.425 5.78
catalanotto,frank 349 .059 .877 .330 .289/.331/.464 5.84
wells,vernon 405 .063 .874 .357 .312/.355/.569 7.92
delgado,carlos 345 .165 .762 .391 .298/.414/.614 9.77
myers,greg 198 .132 .828 .348 .288/.382/.505 7.31
hinske,eric 219 .102 .753 .346 .260/.336/.452 5.55
johnson,reed 179 .082 .899 .324 .292/.350/.454 6.05
hudson,orlando 284 .084 .820 .317 .260/.322/.387 4.55
woodward,chris 265 .080 .808 .321 .259/.318/.395 4.58
damn!
oh yeah kielty fields better than stewart too.
christmas comes early
look what you have in your grubby little (virtual) fingers! pitcher leaderboards!
wal & con, plus pra, which stands for predicted run average, and rra, which is real run average. we don't do era.
player ip wal con pra rra
johnson,randy 23.1 .074 .690 3.32 7.71
schilling,curt 77 .068 .700 3.34 3.51
prior,mark 128.2 .076 .701 3.45 3.71
vazquez,javier 125.1 .067 .716 3.49 4.16
martinez,pedro 103 .072 .711 3.50 2.80
mussina,mike 124.1 .044 .748 3.54 3.47
schmidt,jason 133 .071 .719 3.57 2.44
clemens,roger 124.2 .073 .736 3.76 3.97
wood,kerry 127 .128 .669 3.79 3.26
dreifort,darren 60.1 .095 .720 3.86 4.33
willis,dontrell 82.1 .073 .752 3.92 2.19
brown,kevin 117.1 .064 .773 4.03 2.53
oswalt,roy 85.2 .071 .765 4.03 3.78
beckett,josh 53.2 .110 .729 4.16 4.86
pettitte,andy 116.2 .061 .790 4.16 5.40
halladay,roy 153 .042 .811 4.17 4.06
loaiza,esteban 130.1 .067 .787 4.22 2.35
alvarez,wilson 23.2 .096 .755 4.24 4.18
webb,brandon 97 .078 .779 4.26 2.51
millwood,kevin 127.2 .073 .786 4.27 3.74
player ip wal con pra rra
gagne,eric 45.1 .076 .522 1.83 2.18
smoltz,john 47.1 .038 .693 2.95 0.95
wagner,billy 51.2 .074 .661 3.04 2.44
mantei,matt 27.1 .088 .650 3.12 3.95
donnelly,brenda 48 .076 .673 3.17 0.56
hawkins,latroy 45.2 .058 .704 3.27 3.35
holmes,darren 27.2 .066 .717 3.49 4.23
dotel,octavio 53.2 .098 .680 3.51 2.68
foulke,keith 50.1 .074 .714 3.55 2.86
calero,kiko 38.1 .127 .646 3.55 2.82
gordon,tom 45.2 .120 .659 3.59 3.94
santana,johan 72 .087 .704 3.61 3.00
borowski,joe 43.2 .068 .727 3.61 3.09
rivera,mariano 36 .042 .757 3.62 2.00
ryan,b.j. 25.1 .137 .644 3.66 5.68
service,scott 30.2 .053 .754 3.70 5.28
percival,troy 29 .080 .728 3.77 2.79
guardado,eddie 36 .048 .770 3.81 3.75
riske,david 45 .082 .732 3.83 3.00
mota,guillermo 57.1 .052 .771 3.86 1.57
eric gagne is insane. you know i should have used runs created in my pra calculations. instead i used linear weights. oh well. next time.
with pra right next to rra you can easily run a list of the luckiest and unluckiest pitchers.
luckiest:
player ip wal con pra rra luck
lima,jose 39.1 .106 .896 5.91 2.52 3.40
williams,jerome 58 .113 .826 5.23 2.79 2.43
day,zach 65.1 .118 .882 5.92 3.72 2.20
loaiza,esteban 130.1 .067 .787 4.22 2.35 1.87
armas,tony 31 .071 .805 4.45 2.61 1.83
zito,barry 134.1 .094 .849 5.23 3.42 1.81
villone,ron 30 .098 .775 4.46 2.70 1.76
webb,brandon 97 .078 .779 4.26 2.51 1.75
willis,dontrell 82.1 .073 .752 3.92 2.19 1.73
hernandez,runel 62 .101 .853 5.36 3.63 1.73
pineiro,joel 129 .097 .822 4.96 3.28 1.68
hudson,tim 143 .073 .837 4.82 3.15 1.67
mulder,mark 139.2 .054 .847 4.68 3.03 1.66
ishii,kazuhisa 104 .159 .740 4.93 3.29 1.64
moyer,jamie 122.1 .082 .829 4.83 3.24 1.60
ortiz,russ 128.1 .113 .838 5.35 3.79 1.56
westbrook,jake 66.1 .118 .904 6.18 4.61 1.56
brown,kevin 117.1 .064 .773 4.03 2.53 1.50
zambrano,victor 100.2 .149 .833 5.81 4.38 1.42
rueter,kirk 105 .077 .937 6.02 4.63 1.39
it'slima time! then a bunch of all-stars, overhyped rookies, and a's. zito, mulder, and hudson benefit from a pitcher's park and the best defense in the majors.
kirk rueter is lucky every year. which means he's not lucky, he's good (relatively speaking). bill james calls him the "tommy john" type: crafty lefties that don't walk people and control the running game. i'm working on a way to account for that in the stats. actually, i've got one, i just need to implement it.
"what?"
"he says he's already got one!"
"can we come up and have a look?"
"no!"
unluckiest:
player ip wal con pra rra luck
johnson,randy 23.1 .074 .690 3.32 7.71 -4.39
drese,ryan 20 .167 .767 5.33 9.45 -4.12
benes,alan 23.1 .116 .813 5.11 8.49 -3.37
heilman,aaron 21.1 .092 .876 5.50 8.86 -3.36
brazelton,dewon 48.1 .114 .881 5.86 9.12 -3.26
anderson,jimmy 38.2 .074 .926 5.84 9.08 -3.23
rusch,glendon 84.1 .090 .843 5.11 8.22 -3.11
austin,jeff 28.1 .157 .805 5.61 8.58 -2.97
lewis,colby 61.1 .156 .833 5.92 8.80 -2.89
condrey,clay 34 .142 .828 5.64 8.47 -2.83
neagle,denny 31.1 .063 .858 4.93 6.89 -1.97
elarton,scott 37 .087 .917 5.91 7.78 -1.88
hendrickson,mar 94 .053 .882 5.08 6.70 -1.62
fossum,casey 59.1 .098 .791 4.64 6.22 -1.58
astacio,pedro 36.2 .118 .873 5.81 7.36 -1.55
standridge,jaso 32 .102 .864 5.49 7.03 -1.54
loewer,carlton 21.2 .083 .890 5.54 7.06 -1.53
patterson,john 41.2 .126 .827 5.41 6.91 -1.50
lidle,cory 125.1 .061 .854 4.86 6.32 -1.46
santos,victor 25.2 .138 .858 5.94 7.36 -1.42
whaddyaknow, randy johnson doesn't suck. also there are 2 toronto pitchers, and of course some high-altitude kids.
now for the relievers . . .
luckiest:
player ip wal con pra rra luck
wendell,turk 34 .112 .882 5.84 1.59 4.25
hasegawa,shiget 46.2 .038 .881 4.88 0.77 4.11
shuey,paul 38.1 .121 .783 4.85 1.88 2.98
guthrie,mark 22.1 .113 .837 5.35 2.42 2.93
cormier,rheal 47.1 .086 .776 4.33 1.52 2.81
quantrill,paul 45 .056 .838 4.63 2.00 2.63
donnelly,brenda 48 .076 .673 3.17 0.56 2.61
looper,braden 51.1 .090 .837 5.03 2.45 2.58
estrella,leo 37.1 .065 .883 5.22 2.65 2.57
strickland,scot 20 .126 .789 5.00 2.70 2.30
mota,guillermo 57.1 .052 .771 3.86 1.57 2.30
silva,carlos 54.2 .117 .881 5.90 3.62 2.28
marte,damaso 43.1 .106 .706 3.87 1.66 2.21
shields,scot 67.1 .079 .785 4.34 2.14 2.20
koplove,mike 37.2 .094 .813 4.82 2.63 2.19
levine,al 45 .079 .868 5.24 3.20 2.04
kline,steve 36.2 .143 .896 6.45 4.42 2.03
reith,brian 27.2 .147 .845 5.92 3.90 2.02
smoltz,john 47.1 .038 .693 2.95 0.95 2.00
leskanic,curtis 29 .155 .697 4.44 2.48 1.95
looks like the change to #13 worked! or is it the shark's teeth? (bear's claws? what are those things?) does he still chew licorice and brush his teeth between innings?
in other news, brendan donnelly is not the best pitcher ever.
unluckiest:
player ip wal con pra rra luck
lopez,albie 22.2 .135 .862 5.94 12.71 -6.77
bierbrodt,nick 43.1 .142 .851 5.90 9.76 -3.86
wright,jaret 30.1 .138 .804 5.32 8.90 -3.58
orosco,jesse 24 .103 .790 4.69 8.25 -3.56
vizcaino,luis 34.2 .102 .773 4.50 8.05 -3.55
cruz,juan 26 .154 .702 4.48 7.96 -3.49
powell,jay 36.1 .131 .855 5.80 9.17 -3.36
jones,todd 45.2 .098 .828 5.03 8.28 -3.25
cruz,nelson 53.2 .054 .832 4.53 7.21 -2.68
fassero,jeff 34.2 .090 .862 5.31 7.79 -2.48
white,rick 39 .069 .807 4.45 6.92 -2.47
acevedo,juan 32 .097 .820 4.95 7.31 -2.37
neal,blaine 20 .095 .895 5.76 8.10 -2.34
yan,esteban 46 .088 .812 4.74 6.85 -2.11
ryan,b.j. 25.1 .137 .644 3.66 5.68 -2.03
politte,cliff 33.2 .071 .804 4.44 6.42 -1.97
saarloos,kirk 31.1 .102 .795 4.74 6.61 -1.87
groom,buddy 26.2 .082 .813 4.66 6.41 -1.75
meadows,brian 28 .039 .893 5.04 6.75 -1.71
service,scott 30.2 .053 .754 3.70 5.28 -1.58
the cubs don't know what they have with juan cruz. but what else is new.
now for the whole enchilada:
player ip wal con pra rra
johnson,randy 23.1 .074 .690 3.32 7.71
schilling,curt 77 .068 .700 3.34 3.51
prior,mark 128.2 .076 .701 3.45 3.71
vazquez,javier 125.1 .067 .716 3.49 4.16
martinez,pedro 103 .072 .711 3.50 2.80
mussina,mike 124.1 .044 .748 3.54 3.47
schmidt,jason 133 .071 .719 3.57 2.44
clemens,roger 124.2 .073 .736 3.76 3.97
wood,kerry 127 .128 .669 3.79 3.26
dreifort,darren 60.1 .095 .720 3.86 4.33
willis,dontrell 82.1 .073 .752 3.92 2.19
brown,kevin 117.1 .064 .773 4.03 2.53
oswalt,roy 85.2 .071 .765 4.03 3.78
beckett,josh 53.2 .110 .729 4.16 4.86
pettitte,andy 116.2 .061 .790 4.16 5.40
halladay,roy 153 .042 .811 4.17 4.06
loaiza,esteban 130.1 .067 .787 4.22 2.35
alvarez,wilson 23.2 .096 .755 4.24 4.18
webb,brandon 97 .078 .779 4.26 2.51
millwood,kevin 127.2 .073 .786 4.27 3.74
wolf,randy 119.2 .093 .763 4.29 3.61
sheets,ben 141.2 .054 .813 4.32 4.83
escobar,kelvim 87.2 .102 .762 4.39 5.03
lohse,kyle 116.2 .062 .811 4.40 5.01
nomo,hideo 142.1 .102 .765 4.42 3.10
armas,tony 31 .071 .805 4.45 2.61
morris,matt 124.2 .060 .818 4.46 4.48
pavano,carl 118.1 .048 .832 4.46 4.56
villone,ron 30 .098 .775 4.46 2.70
perez,odalis 114.1 .061 .818 4.46 4.41
eaton,adam 102.2 .095 .788 4.56 4.91
wakefield,tim 116.1 .104 .778 4.57 4.64
redman,mark 99.1 .074 .814 4.58 3.62
lackey,john 119 .075 .813 4.58 5.29
clement,matt 112.2 .100 .784 4.59 4.71
bonderman,jerem 103.1 .074 .816 4.61 5.66
ponson,sidney 126 .069 .823 4.61 3.79
williams,woody 134.2 .061 .832 4.62 3.27
fossum,casey 59.1 .098 .791 4.64 6.22
colon,bartolo 134.2 .078 .816 4.65 4.14
benoit,joaquin 56.2 .114 .774 4.67 5.56
kim,byung-hyun 84.1 .088 .806 4.68 4.06
wells,david 127 .024 .877 4.68 3.90
mulder,mark 139.2 .054 .847 4.68 3.03
thomson,john 117.2 .050 .851 4.69 5.97
penny,brad 116.2 .078 .820 4.70 4.94
maddux,greg 126.1 .050 .852 4.70 5.56
meche,gil 112.1 .075 .824 4.70 3.77
miller,wade 116 .096 .800 4.71 4.81
traber,billy 72 .102 .794 4.72 4.38
batista,miguel 108 .077 .823 4.72 3.42
hernandez,livan 129 .069 .834 4.74 4.19
kinney,matt 116.1 .099 .801 4.75 5.18
radke,brad 118 .044 .863 4.75 5.87
lilly,ted 105.1 .090 .812 4.76 5.38
ashby,andy 42 .059 .853 4.82 5.57
hudson,tim 143 .073 .837 4.82 3.15
good,andrew 66.1 .065 .846 4.82 5.70
moyer,jamie 122.1 .082 .829 4.83 3.24
affeldt,jeremy 85 .076 .836 4.84 5.08
myers,brett 120.2 .089 .822 4.85 3.80
lidle,cory 125.1 .061 .854 4.86 6.32
ainsworth,kurt 66 .093 .818 4.86 4.23
may,darrell 112 .063 .854 4.88 3.78
peavy,jake 116.2 .103 .810 4.90 4.71
benson,kris 103 .071 .848 4.91 5.33
neagle,denny 31.1 .063 .858 4.93 6.89
seo,jae_weong 108.2 .057 .865 4.93 4.31
ishii,kazuhisa 104 .159 .740 4.93 3.29
perez,oliver 63.1 .157 .743 4.93 5.40
burkett,john 104.2 .079 .842 4.95 5.50
pineiro,joel 129 .097 .822 4.96 3.28
suppan,jeff 118.1 .065 .859 4.96 3.80
garcia,freddy 122.1 .087 .835 4.97 4.78
sabathia,c.c. 117 .093 .830 4.99 3.62
lopez,rodrigo 65.1 .076 .850 5.00 6.34
rogers,kenny 108.2 .067 .860 5.00 5.05
snyder,kyle 64.1 .057 .872 5.00 5.04
zambrano,carlos 120.2 .117 .802 5.01 4.10
dessens,elmer 112.1 .078 .852 5.05 5.69
wells,kip 105.1 .110 .815 5.05 4.02
padilla,vicente 115.2 .084 .847 5.07 4.28
chacon,shawn 105.1 .102 .826 5.07 4.44
d'amico,jeff 104.1 .058 .877 5.08 4.57
hendrickson,mar 94 .053 .882 5.08 6.70
reed,rick 87.2 .062 .873 5.08 5.44
jennings,jason 116.1 .112 .815 5.08 5.26
robertson,jerio 94.1 .087 .845 5.09 5.15
lawrence,brian 129.1 .082 .852 5.09 4.80
ohka,tomo 105.2 .062 .874 5.10 4.85
daal,omar 86 .067 .870 5.11 6.17
rusch,glendon 84.1 .090 .843 5.11 8.22
benes,alan 23.1 .116 .813 5.11 8.49
foppert,jesse 78.2 .148 .772 5.11 6.06
garland,jon 104.2 .083 .852 5.11 4.90
wilson,paul 104.1 .068 .870 5.12 5.61
washburn,jarrod 128 .066 .872 5.12 4.29
weaver,jeff 110.2 .071 .868 5.14 5.61
harang,aaron 30.1 .064 .879 5.17 5.64
duckworth,brand 58.2 .125 .808 5.17 5.06
gonzalez,jeremi 65.2 .140 .788 5.18 4.11
redding,tim 106.2 .098 .841 5.18 4.22
johnson,jason 103.2 .094 .846 5.19 4.43
ramirez,horacio 99 .096 .846 5.21 4.55
williams,jerome 58 .113 .826 5.23 2.79
zito,barry 134.1 .094 .849 5.23 3.42
tomko,brett 118 .071 .878 5.25 6.25
davis,jason 105.2 .077 .872 5.26 5.79
maroth,mike 112.1 .066 .886 5.27 5.21
simontacchi,jas 89.1 .083 .866 5.28 6.25
franklin,ryan 117.2 .070 .882 5.28 3.98
jarvis,kevin 35.1 .094 .855 5.29 5.35
vargas,claudio 92.2 .085 .866 5.29 3.98
valdes,ismael 85.1 .059 .896 5.31 6.64
buehrle,mark 136 .074 .881 5.31 5.16
helling,rick 102 .097 .854 5.32 5.82
ortiz,ramon 112.1 .083 .871 5.32 5.37
drese,ryan 20 .167 .767 5.33 9.45
fogg,josh 73 .077 .880 5.35 5.42
ortiz,russ 128.1 .113 .838 5.35 3.79
hernandez,runel 62 .101 .853 5.36 3.63
franklin,wayne 119.2 .119 .833 5.37 5.19
hentgen,pat 73.2 .099 .858 5.38 5.25
halama,john 74.1 .085 .874 5.38 6.05
lowe,derek 116 .091 .868 5.40 5.35
reynolds,shane 94 .095 .865 5.41 5.74
trachsel,steve 111.1 .090 .870 5.41 4.77
patterson,john 41.2 .126 .827 5.41 6.91
anderson,brian 104.2 .054 .910 5.41 5.68
rodriguez,ricar 81.2 .085 .877 5.42 6.28
dempster,ryan 99 .136 .821 5.48 6.82
standridge,jaso 32 .102 .864 5.49 7.03
heilman,aaron 21.1 .092 .876 5.50 8.86
appier,kevin 84.2 .104 .863 5.52 5.00
loewer,carlton 21.2 .083 .890 5.54 7.06
estes,shawn 105 .114 .853 5.54 6.77
kennedy,joe 72.1 .074 .901 5.55 6.35
hampton,mike 91 .118 .849 5.55 5.54
burnett,a.j. 23 .187 .759 5.56 5.09
asencio,miguel 48.1 .108 .864 5.58 5.40
bernero,adam 100.2 .106 .867 5.58 6.08
reyes,carlos 28 .035 .946 5.59 4.82
oliver,darren 106 .095 .882 5.60 4.75
leiter,al 97 .143 .823 5.61 5.66
austin,jeff 28.1 .157 .805 5.61 8.58
glavine,tom 110.1 .088 .893 5.64 4.89
condrey,clay 34 .142 .828 5.64 8.47
stephenson,garr 118 .113 .864 5.65 4.96
ritchie,todd 28.1 .104 .876 5.66 5.40
wright,dan 54.2 .130 .845 5.68 6.26
mays,joe 98.1 .079 .907 5.69 6.59
parris,steve 43.2 .064 .927 5.72 6.60
graves,danny 117.2 .071 .921 5.75 6.12
zambrano,victor 100.2 .149 .833 5.81 4.38
astacio,pedro 36.2 .118 .873 5.81 7.36
anderson,jimmy 38.2 .074 .926 5.84 9.08
brazelton,dewon 48.1 .114 .881 5.86 9.12
sele,aaron 58.2 .108 .892 5.90 5.68
elarton,scott 37 .087 .917 5.91 7.78
lima,jose 39.1 .106 .896 5.91 2.52
lewis,colby 61.1 .156 .833 5.92 8.80
day,zach 65.1 .118 .882 5.92 3.72
knotts,gary 75 .117 .884 5.93 5.28
mcclung,seth 38.2 .158 .832 5.94 5.35
davis,doug 57 .112 .890 5.94 5.84
santos,victor 25.2 .138 .858 5.94 7.36
quevedo,ruben 41.1 .112 .891 5.95 6.53
sosa,jorge 59.1 .113 .892 5.98 5.01
george,chris 93.2 .105 .903 5.99 7.21
rueter,kirk 105 .077 .937 6.02 4.63
mounce,tony 33.1 .141 .864 6.05 5.94
stewart,josh 25.2 .132 .876 6.06 6.31
haynes,jimmy 80 .131 .879 6.08 5.96
moss,damian 96 .135 .875 6.08 5.25
cornejo,nate 103.1 .064 .957 6.09 4.70
westbrook,jake 66.1 .118 .904 6.18 4.61
bell,rob 29.1 .132 .898 6.32 7.67
cook,aaron 88 .112 .924 6.34 6.65
park,chanho 29.2 .201 .870 7.07 7.89
player ip wal con pra rra
gagne,eric 45.1 .076 .522 1.83 2.18
smoltz,john 47.1 .038 .693 2.95 0.95
wagner,billy 51.2 .074 .661 3.04 2.44
mantei,matt 27.1 .088 .650 3.12 3.95
donnelly,brenda 48 .076 .673 3.17 0.56
hawkins,latroy 45.2 .058 .704 3.27 3.35
holmes,darren 27.2 .066 .717 3.49 4.23
dotel,octavio 53.2 .098 .680 3.51 2.68
foulke,keith 50.1 .074 .714 3.55 2.86
calero,kiko 38.1 .127 .646 3.55 2.82
gordon,tom 45.2 .120 .659 3.59 3.94
santana,johan 72 .087 .704 3.61 3.00
borowski,joe 43.2 .068 .727 3.61 3.09
rivera,mariano 36 .042 .757 3.62 2.00
ryan,b.j. 25.1 .137 .644 3.66 5.68
service,scott 30.2 .053 .754 3.70 5.28
percival,troy 29 .080 .728 3.77 2.79
guardado,eddie 36 .048 .770 3.81 3.75
riske,david 45 .082 .732 3.83 3.00
mota,guillermo 57.1 .052 .771 3.86 1.57
marte,damaso 43.1 .106 .706 3.87 1.66
nelson,jeff 30.2 .103 .713 3.90 4.70
farnsworth,kyle 45 .114 .699 3.91 3.00
lidge,brad 53.2 .128 .685 3.95 2.85
hodges,trey 45.1 .102 .723 3.98 3.38
fuentes,brian 44.2 .131 .692 4.06 3.43
timlin,mike 52 .037 .807 4.07 3.81
williamson,scot 37.1 .143 .681 4.10 3.38
urbina,ugueth 39.2 .116 .717 4.11 4.31
remlinger,mike 40 .165 .651 4.12 4.95
rodriguez,franc 48 .109 .733 4.17 3.00
nathan,joe 50.2 .117 .723 4.19 3.73
mateo,julio 41.2 .075 .776 4.19 3.46
hammond,chris 39.1 .047 .809 4.20 3.43
cordero,francis 51.1 .120 .722 4.21 4.21
benitez,armando 49.1 .113 .735 4.25 3.28
driskill,travis 39.2 .041 .823 4.28 5.67
roa,joe 26 .042 .823 4.30 5.54
almanza,armando 40.2 .108 .747 4.30 5.31
spooneybarger,t 42 .073 .791 4.32 4.50
cormier,rheal 47.1 .086 .776 4.33 1.52
baez,danys 45 .086 .776 4.33 4.20
shields,scot 67.1 .079 .785 4.34 2.14
martin,tom 28.1 .114 .743 4.34 4.45
embree,alan 35.2 .076 .791 4.36 3.79
lyon,brandon 50.2 .081 .785 4.36 4.44
miceli,dan 39 .110 .752 4.39 4.38
mecir,jim 25 .058 .816 4.41 3.60
fultz,aaron 41 .078 .795 4.43 4.83
oropesa,eddie 26 .148 .707 4.43 3.46
leskanic,curtis 29 .155 .697 4.44 2.48
politte,cliff 33.2 .071 .804 4.44 6.42
white,rick 39 .069 .807 4.45 6.92
ligtenberg,kerr 33.2 .062 .816 4.46 3.48
cruz,juan 26 .154 .702 4.48 7.96
white,gabe 34.1 .048 .835 4.49 3.93
rhodes,arthur 37.2 .096 .780 4.50 3.82
vizcaino,luis 34.2 .102 .773 4.50 8.05
speier,justin 48 .092 .787 4.52 3.75
eldred,cal 38.2 .120 .753 4.53 4.42
cruz,nelson 53.2 .054 .832 4.53 7.21
osuna,antonio 27.1 .107 .771 4.53 2.96
eischen,joey 34.2 .082 .801 4.54 4.67
lopez,javier 33.2 .074 .810 4.54 5.61
schoeneweis,sco 32.2 .079 .806 4.55 4.41
bong,jung 47 .102 .778 4.56 3.83
worrell,tim 46.2 .082 .804 4.58 3.86
herges,matt 44 .113 .767 4.59 3.27
hitchcock,sterl 32 .076 .813 4.60 5.63
contreras,jose 25.1 .142 .732 4.60 4.62
feliciano,pedro 28.2 .114 .769 4.61 3.77
walker,jamie 35.2 .068 .825 4.62 3.79
quantrill,paul 45 .056 .838 4.63 2.00
grimsley,jason 50 .090 .802 4.65 4.14
weathers,dave 51 .105 .784 4.66 3.35
groom,buddy 26.2 .082 .813 4.66 6.41
harper,travis 60.2 .089 .804 4.67 4.01
smith,dan 37.2 .114 .774 4.67 5.50
lopez,aquilino 47.1 .148 .730 4.68 4.37
adams,terry 46.1 .070 .828 4.68 3.11
orosco,jesse 24 .103 .790 4.69 8.25
dejean,mike 46.1 .104 .789 4.70 5.83
kieschnick,broo 31 .044 .862 4.74 4.35
yan,esteban 46 .088 .812 4.74 6.85
torres,salomon 70.1 .078 .824 4.74 4.48
saarloos,kirk 31.1 .102 .795 4.74 6.61
bradford,chad 46.2 .115 .780 4.74 4.05
shouse,brian 40.1 .047 .865 4.81 4.24
dickey,r.a. 45 .100 .805 4.81 5.20
stewart,scott 37.2 .083 .825 4.81 4.06
ledezma,wil 52 .073 .837 4.82 3.29
koplove,mike 37.2 .094 .813 4.82 2.63
reitsma,chris 49.1 .052 .861 4.82 4.56
ayala,luis 35 .044 .870 4.83 4.11
julio,jorge 34.1 .128 .772 4.84 4.46
chen,bruce 24.1 .108 .798 4.85 5.92
mercker,kent 26.2 .158 .733 4.85 3.04
shuey,paul 38.1 .121 .783 4.85 1.88
garcia,rosman 24.2 .073 .842 4.87 4.74
mesa,jose 40 .088 .824 4.87 5.18
weber,ben 47.1 .055 .863 4.88 3.04
hasegawa,shiget 46.2 .038 .881 4.88 0.77
heredia,felix 54 .080 .837 4.90 3.50
spurling,chris 41.1 .045 .876 4.91 5.44
foster,john 21 .088 .828 4.91 4.71
rodriguez,felix 41.1 .108 .806 4.93 3.48
eyre,scott 38 .085 .833 4.93 3.55
acevedo,juan 32 .097 .820 4.95 7.31
sullivan,scott 44.1 .136 .772 4.95 4.26
koch,billy 38.1 .109 .806 4.95 6.10
shiell,jason 21.2 .147 .759 4.96 5.40
biddle,rocky 45.1 .150 .754 4.96 4.76
carter,lance 46.2 .085 .837 4.96 4.24
villafuerte,bra 29.1 .145 .763 4.97 4.91
wilson,kris 48 .061 .865 4.98 5.44
phelps,tommy 57 .094 .828 4.98 4.58
king,ray 35.1 .114 .803 4.98 3.06
bauer,rick 41 .089 .835 5.00 5.05
strickland,scot 20 .126 .789 5.00 2.70
looper,braden 51.1 .090 .837 5.03 2.45
jones,todd 45.2 .098 .828 5.03 8.28
meadows,brian 28 .039 .893 5.04 6.75
tejera,michael 57.2 .101 .825 5.05 5.77
stanton,mike 21.2 .097 .833 5.08 4.98
gryboski,kevin 30.2 .115 .813 5.10 4.70
colome,jesus 49.2 .160 .758 5.14 4.71
delossantos,val 30 .117 .814 5.14 3.90
lloyd,graeme 32 .045 .898 5.16 3.38
sauerbeck,scott 38 .149 .776 5.17 4.74
boyd,jason 33 .124 .808 5.17 4.09
lowe,sean 37.1 .092 .848 5.18 5.06
alfonseca,anton 34 .097 .842 5.18 6.09
rincon,ricardo 32 .134 .797 5.18 4.50
bland,nate 20.1 .144 .783 5.18 5.75
villarreal,osca 55.2 .135 .797 5.21 4.20
estrella,leo 37.1 .065 .883 5.22 2.65
carrasco,d.j. 46.1 .135 .800 5.23 4.27
levine,al 45 .079 .868 5.24 3.20
matthews,mike 46 .117 .824 5.25 4.50
tucker,t.j. 45.1 .097 .850 5.27 6.15
stone,ricky 53.2 .091 .857 5.27 3.69
levrault,allen 28 .116 .828 5.28 3.86
hackman,luther 50.2 .103 .846 5.30 4.62
linebrink,scott 64.1 .096 .855 5.31 3.36
fassero,jeff 34.2 .090 .862 5.31 7.79
sparks,steve 60 .100 .851 5.32 5.40
wright,jaret 30.1 .138 .804 5.32 8.90
rincon,juan 49 .114 .834 5.32 3.67
sanders,dave 21 .117 .831 5.33 5.14
guthrie,mark 22.1 .113 .837 5.35 2.42
randolph,stephe 35 .169 .767 5.37 4.37
brower,jim 56.1 .111 .844 5.39 4.95
glover,gary 31.1 .093 .868 5.42 5.17
beimel,joe 40.1 .142 .810 5.45 3.57
miller,trever 32.1 .148 .803 5.45 5.57
callaway,mickey 35.1 .088 .877 5.47 6.88
ford,matt 41.1 .104 .860 5.47 3.92
zerbe,chad 36.1 .043 .929 5.49 4.46
macdougal,mike 41.2 .153 .800 5.50 3.89
boehringer,bria 36.1 .118 .846 5.51 6.44
reed,steve 39.2 .119 .845 5.52 3.86
roberts,willis 39.1 .126 .836 5.52 5.95
roney,matt 62 .110 .859 5.55 3.92
mendoza,ramiro 48.1 .085 .889 5.55 5.77
sturtze,tanyon 66 .106 .867 5.58 6.95
jimenez,jose 44.1 .091 .884 5.59 7.11
hernandez,rober 40 .162 .800 5.63 4.73
german,franklyn 32.1 .217 .724 5.66 4.45
tavarez,julian 39 .092 .892 5.69 5.08
romero,j.c. 36.1 .164 .804 5.70 5.20
tam,jeff 44.2 .119 .865 5.74 6.04
walker,pete 32.1 .110 .876 5.75 6.12
neal,blaine 20 .095 .895 5.76 8.10
fiore,tony 36 .146 .836 5.80 6.25
powell,jay 36.1 .131 .855 5.80 9.17
neu,mike 27.1 .134 .855 5.83 4.28
wendell,turk 34 .112 .882 5.84 1.59
munro,pete 44.2 .124 .869 5.86 5.24
bierbrodt,nick 43.1 .142 .851 5.90 9.76
silva,carlos 54.2 .117 .881 5.90 3.62
reith,brian 27.2 .147 .845 5.92 3.90
lopez,albie 22.2 .135 .862 5.94 12.71
riedling,john 62.2 .130 .873 5.99 7.04
carrara,giovann 29 .112 .898 6.02 6.83
hermanson,dusti 29.2 .108 .903 6.03 5.46
williams,mike 36.1 .133 .873 6.04 6.44
cerda,jaime 23.1 .136 .874 6.09 6.56
mulholland,terr 52.2 .113 .909 6.17 4.61
myers,mike 24.1 .130 .890 6.20 5.55
kline,steve 36.2 .143 .896 6.45 4.42
puffer,brandon 21 .163 .885 6.64 5.57
anderson,jason 20.2 .158 .894 6.67 5.66
don't you love being my readers? how are you doing anyway? both of you.
Monday, July 14, 2003
comments on the masher list
1. look at barry bonds. just look at him.
2. how 'bout that morgan ensberg! is jimy gonna play him when kent comes back? he's got to, right?
3. notice that pow is the most important of the three skills.
4. piazza, griffey, thomas . . . old guys still hittin' it hard.
5. adam dunn is at his peak. it'll last until he's 27 or 28, then that con will take him down. he'll fall off the cliff at 30.
6. garrett anderson has con and pow. and speed. he'll keep playing for a long time. it's conceivable that he'll increase his walks. baseball prospectus finally admitted that they blew it with him. but they view it as an isolated case.
eureka!
doug's nba & mlb stats! it's even got hbp. doug is the man.
so here you go. wal con pow plus predicted avg/obp/slg, and a new one, runs created per 27 outs (predicted), a bill james classic and still the best "how good is he?" stat imho. remember, baserunning is not included. call it the "masher list".
top 20:
player ab wal con pow avg/obp/slg rc/27
bonds,barry 256 .264 .848 .408 .346/.519/.748 16.04
pujols,albert 348 .110 .911 .374 .340/.413/.662 11.19
edmonds,jim 307 .140 .762 .409 .312/.408/.677 10.85
helton,todd 358 .150 .874 .367 .321/.422/.608 10.21
sheffield,gary 324 .150 .914 .357 .326/.427/.594 10.16
ensberg,morgan 199 .157 .814 .379 .308/.417/.610 9.91
delgado,carlos 345 .165 .762 .391 .298/.414/.614 9.77
lowell,mike 353 .109 .839 .379 .318/.392/.629 9.76
piazza,mike 111 .133 .865 .365 .316/.407/.595 9.54
griffey,ken_jr 163 .168 .730 .398 .290/.410/.609 9.50
thomas,frank 301 .193 .781 .374 .292/.428/.567 9.27
giambi,jason 318 .211 .748 .380 .284/.435/.564 9.25
lopez,javy 261 .068 .808 .389 .315/.361/.644 9.16
gonzalez,luis 352 .124 .889 .353 .314/.399/.564 8.86
ramirez,manny 345 .146 .852 .357 .305/.406/.557 8.78
giles,brian 248 .200 .895 .338 .303/.442/.509 8.72
palmeiro,rafael 313 .152 .863 .352 .304/.409/.543 8.63
sweeney,mike 215 .183 .865 .345 .298/.427/.517 8.49
burnitz,jeromy 234 .097 .765 .388 .297/.364/.604 8.45
boone,bret 364 .092 .830 .368 .306/.370/.583 8.38
catcher:
player ab wal con pow avg/obp/slg rc/27
piazza,mike 111 .133 .865 .365 .316/.407/.595 9.54
lopez,javy 261 .068 .808 .389 .315/.361/.644 9.16
varitek,jason 255 .099 .784 .376 .295/.364/.577 8.05
posada,jorge 278 .206 .770 .358 .276/.425/.506 8.01
myers,greg 198 .132 .828 .348 .288/.382/.505 7.31
rodriguez,ivan 293 .112 .816 .348 .284/.364/.499 6.85
hammock,robby 103 .046 .816 .354 .289/.322/.522 6.38
larue,jason 205 .128 .707 .363 .257/.352/.481 6.16
pierzynski,a.j. 276 .058 .895 .330 .295/.336/.472 6.08
barrett,michael 169 .096 .834 .336 .280/.349/.463 6.07
hernandez,ramon 275 .086 .840 .336 .282/.344/.468 6.05
schneider,brian 161 .130 .789 .338 .267/.362/.447 5.95
johnson,charles 224 .115 .763 .346 .264./349/.461 5.90
molina,ben 270 .046 .930 .322 .299/.331/.458 5.85
phillips,jason 186 .114 .876 .320 .281/.363/.426 5.80
lieberthal,mike 286 .098 .895 .315 .282/.352/.415 5.50
loduca,paul 329 .096 .900 .314 .283/.352/.414 5.48
perez,eddie 206 .042 .859 .331 .284/.314/.459 5.45
santiago,benito 256 .062 .844 .328 .277/.322/.441 5.31
davis,ben 153 .067 .758 .347 .263/.312/.459 5.25
hall,toby 254 .070 .937 .309 .289/.339/.408 5.25
moeller,chad 188 .092 .761 .341 .259/.327/.440 5.25
kendall,jason 334 .116 .916 .304 .278/.362/.377 5.11
wilson,vance 187 .074 .813 .326 .265/.319/.414 4.86
difelice,mike 121 .062 .826 .321 .266/.311/.406 4.65
mayne,brent 212 .090 .863 .309 .267/.333/.375 4.59
alomar,sandy 101 .029 .921 .307 .282/.303/.391 4.46
estalella,bobby 109 .121 .596 .365 .218/.312/.410 4.42
olivo,miguel 191 .068 .796 .322 .256/.307/.392 4.37
greene,todd 101 .029 .723 .347 .251/.273/.439 4.31
wilson,tom 173 .099 .659 .348 .229/.306/.403 4.31
miller,damian 217 .107 .733 .327 .239/.321/.378 4.30
laker,tim 101 .038 .772 .331 .256/.284/.414 4.28
stinnett,kelly 133 .050 .752 .333 .250/.288/.408 4.23
matheny,mike 283 .090 .830 .308 .256/.323/.358 4.20
barajas,rod 134 .043 .806 .321 .258/.290/.393 4.15
mirabelli,doug 108 .027 .787 .327 .257/.277/.405 4.08
torrealba,yorvit 114 .066 .781 .318 .248/.297/.371 3.96
inge,brandon 167 .092 .731 .322 .235/.306/.361 3.90
diaz,einar 218 .052 .881 .300 .264/.302/.347 3.84
ausmus,brad 264 .096 .871 .292 .254/.326/.311 3.66
gil,geronimo 157 .087 .809 .302 .244/.310/.327 3.63
bard,josh 206 .072 .801 .304 .244/.298/.331 3.52
fordyce,brook 158 .060 .842 .299 .251/.296/.327 3.50
osik,keith 146 .115 .801 .295 .236/.324/.298 3.42
bennett,gary 163 .074 .822 .294 .242/.298/.303 3.22
wilson,dan 174 .044 .828 .295 .244/.277/.307 3.04
bako,paul 100 .091 .740 .300 .222/.293/.292 2.97
1b/dh/ph:
player ab wal con pow avg/obp/slg rc/27
helton,todd 358 .150 .874 .367 .321/.422/.608 10.21
delgado,carlos 345 .165 .762 .391 .298/.414/.614 9.77
thomas,frank 301 .193 .781 .374 .292/.428/.567 9.27
giambi,jason 318 .211 .748 .380 .284/.435/.564 9.25
palmeiro,rafael 313 .152 .863 .352 .304/.409/.543 8.63
sweeney,mike 215 .183 .865 .345 .298/.427/.517 8.49
klesko,ryan 271 .142 .797 .365 .291/.392/.550 8.21
johnson,nick 120 .216 .817 .346 .282/.437/.491 8.07
ortiz,david 221 .123 .824 .359 .296/.382/.545 7.98
thome,jim 331 .175 .698 .385 .269/.397/.544 7.96
martinez,edgar 280 .154 .793 .360 .286/.396/.529 7.91
sexson,richie 353 .158 .748 .368 .275/.389/.525 7.61
huff,aubrey 358 .087 .846 .352 .298/.359/.533 7.35
lee,derrek 338 .151 .769 .357 .275/.384/.503 7.19
fullmer,brad 206 .120 .850 .338 .287/.373/.481 6.79
choi,hee_seop 159 .185 .679 .368 .250/.388/.476 6.66
karros,eric 195 .093 .897 .330 .296/.362/.476 6.60
bagwell,jeff 354 .126 .811 .343 .278/.369/.475 6.55
durazo,erubiel 304 .174 .816 .333 .271/.398/.443 6.53
spiezio,scott 271 .103 .867 .334 .289/.362/.474 6.52
snow,j.t. 224 .164 .839 .329 .276/.395/.441 6.50
clark,tony 148 .081 .709 .376 .267/.326/.524 6.29
conine,jeff 354 .090 .864 .333 .288/.352/.468 6.24
daubach,brian 127 .164 .756 .341 .258/.380/.439 6.07
mientkiewicz,doug 284 .093 .877 .327 .287/.353/.452 6.03
martinez,tino 292 .102 .842 .332 .280/.353/.454 6.01
baerga,carlos 152 .056 .921 .324 .298/.338/.463 6.01
kinkade,mike 125 .138 .832 .328 .273/.373/.433 5.99
galarraga,andre 132 .064 .780 .353 .276/.322/.495 5.94
ibanez,raul 357 .078 .871 .328 .286/.341/.454 5.85
mcgriff,fred 237 .092 .789 .339 .267/.335/.449 5.53
lecroy,matthew 174 .049 .770 .352 .271/.307/.483 5.49
vanderwal,john 219 .124 .685 .359 .246/.339/.451 5.47
grace,mark 110 .120 .900 .310 .279/.366/.398 5.45
hatteberg,scott 324 .115 .898 .311 .280/.362/.400 5.43
olerud,john 293 .146 .894 .307 .274/.380/.380 5.37
wooten,shawn 122 .083 .844 .326 .275/.335/.431 5.37
hafner,travis 104 .088 .721 .353 .254/.320/.456 5.29
lee,travis 291 .088 .821 .328 .269/.333/.427 5.26
casey,sean 343 .080 .892 .315 .281/.339/.412 5.24
burks,ellis 198 .132 .768 .331 .254/.352/.411 5.24
pena,carlos 212 .105 .750 .339 .254/.333/.429 5.18
simon,randall 232 .037 .909 .318 .289/.315/.431 5.16
phelps,josh 252 .119 .698 .344 .240/.331/.415 4.88
harvey,ken 282 .069 .787 .332 .261/.313/.425 4.85
konerko,paul 233 .090 .893 .306 .273/.338/.376 4.73
witt,kevin 147 .052 .789 .330 .260/.298/.416 4.53
franco,julio 126 .100 .794 .319 .253/.328/.380 4.50
overbay,lyle 220 .120 .736 .324 .239/.330/.370 4.33
segui,david 204 .109 .784 .314 .246/.329/.359 4.22
liefer,jeff 100 .038 .670 .324 .217/.247/.337 2.87
second base:
player ab wal con pow avg/obp/slg rc/27
boone,bret 364 .092 .830 .368 .306/.370/.583 8.38
vidro,jose 316 .134 .911 .330 .301/.395/.485 7.39
young,eric 307 .110 .922 .326 .301/.378/.473 6.91
kent,jeff 265 .092 .838 .344 .288/.354/.495 6.64
cintron,alex 200 .074 .930 .327 .304/.355/.479 6.60
soriano,alfonso 407 .077 .813 .350 .284/.340/.503 6.44
giles,marcus 313 .113 .856 .331 .284/.365/.460 6.32
vina,fernando 172 .075 .907 .326 .296/.349/.464 6.21
jimenez,d'angelo 271 .106 .830 .326 .271/.348/.426 5.48
walker,todd 366 .076 .902 .315 .284/.339/.418 5.34
spivey,junior 204 .093 .745 .344 .257/.326/.443 5.24
loretta,mark 335 .092 .901 .311 .280/.346/.400 5.19
morris,warren 119 .070 .882 .316 .279/.330/.414 5.11
durham,ray 277 .126 .791 .324 .256/.350/.397 5.04
hairston,jerry 157 .147 .879 .304 .267/.375/.363 5.01
roberts,brian 193 .094 .886 .310 .274/.343/.388 4.95
cairo,miguel 161 .058 .882 .315 .278/.320/.408 4.89
castillo,luis 354 .095 .921 .302 .278/.346/.371 4.81
ellis,mark 309 .104 .819 .318 .260/.338/.390 4.80
hart,bo 106 .062 .830 .322 .267/.312/.408 4.70
young,michael 365 .057 .833 .322 .268/.310/.410 4.69
hudson,orlando 284 .084 .820 .317 .260/.322/.387 4.55
anderson,marlon 275 .095 .851 .307 .261/.332/.363 4.40
eckstein,david 304 .106 .901 .297 .268/.345/.343 4.37
belliard,ronnie 258 .110 .818 .309 .253./336/.358 4.34
derosa,mark 136 .075 .772 .325 .251/.307/.390 4.31
grudzielanek,mark 339 .084 .861 .305 .263/.325/.360 4.28
alomar,roberto 298 .108 .846 .304 .257/.337/.347 4.25
berg,dave 101 .047 .792 .323 .256/.291/.394 4.16
reboulet,jeff 124 .121 .798 .308 .246/.337/.342 4.12
rivas,luis 249 .078 .855 .304 .260/.317/.352 4.08
perez,tomas 131 .064 .809 .313 .254/.302/.368 4.01
bellhorn,mark 192 .172 .714 .310 .222/.356/.315 3.89
mcdonald,john 123 .054 .862 .303 .261/.301/.350 3.84
kennedy,adam 227 .103 .815 .301 .245/.323/.324 3.74
phillips,brando 300 .042 .813 .307 .250/.281/.346 3.50
merloni,lou 106 .131 .764 .294 .225/.326/.281 3.20
easley,damion 107 .018 .832 .299 .248/.262/.323 3.04
gil,benji 113 .034 .761 .306 .233/.259/.321 2.93
febles,carlos 160 .070 .863 .283 .244/.297/.276 2.93
sanchez,rey 164 .041 .896 .283 .253/.284/.284 2.92
reese,pokey 107 .078 .710 .292 .207/.269/.254 2.32
third base:
player ab wal con pow avg/obp/slg rc/27
ensberg,morgan 199 .157 .814 .379 .308/.417/.610 9.91
lowell,mike 353 .109 .839 .379 .318/.392/.629 9.76
rolen,scott 320 .142 .803 .364 .292/.393/.549 8.22
mueller,bill 283 .110 .845 .347 .293/.371/.512 7.25
chavez,eric 323 .098 .836 .347 .290/.359/.507 6.92
glaus,troy 303 .129 .776 .353 .274/.368/.492 6.72
polanco,placido 294 .104 .915 .324 .296/.369/.460 6.51
teixeira,mark 260 .116 .750 .359 .269/.354/.496 6.49
hillenbrand,shea 269 .059 .870 .339 .295/.337/.495 6.38
koskie,corey 319 .140 .774 .346 .268/.370/.465 6.35
feliz,pedro 124 .053 .766 .366 .280/.319/.530 6.35
stynes,chris 263 .126 .844 .332 .280/.371/.455 6.34
blalock,hank 313 .077 .831 .342 .284/.339/.485 6.21
boone,aaron 349 .089 .819 .341 .279/.343/.474 6.10
castilla,vinny 321 .056 .857 .338 .290/.330/.486 6.09
randa,joe 278 .079 .878 .327 .287/.343/.452 5.88
munson,eric 254 .106 .815 .335 .273/.350/.450 5.85
graffanino,tony 141 .108 .809 .333 .269/.348/.439 5.65
hinske,eric 219 .102 .753 .346 .260/.336/.452 5.55
helms,wes 313 .103 .732 .350 .256/.333/.454 5.49
counsell,craig 142 .160 .880 .307 .270/.387/.376 5.39
williams,matt 134 .113 .806 .328 .265/.347/.421 5.38
batista,tony 352 .054 .832 .333 .277/.316/.454 5.36
zeile,todd 169 .115 .805 .327 .264/.348/.417 5.33
blum,geoff 272 .056 .882 .322 .284/.324/.435 5.30
ramirez,aramis 354 .081 .819 .330 .270/.329/.434 5.29
blake,casey 295 .092 .797 .332 .265/.333/.431 5.26
alfonzo,edgardo 318 .104 .925 .305 .282/.357/.386 5.18
burroughs,sean 298 .094 .842 .320 .269/.338/.407 5.08
ventura,robin 261 .118 .782 .327 .256/.344/.405 5.06
norton,greg 125 .088 .800 .324 .259/.324/.403 4.77
wigginton,ty 348 .074 .807 .325 .262/.317/.409 4.74
bell,david 293 .131 .870 .302 .263/.359/.352 4.63
beltre,adrian 306 .081 .820 .318 .261/.321/.392 4.60
crede,joe 302 .071 .844 .314 .265/.317/.388 4.53
cirillo,jeff 239 .098 .879 .296 .260/.333/.331 4.02
ginter,keith 162 .100 .735 .321 .236/.312/.359 3.96
carroll,jamey 112 .089 .830 .304 .252/.319/.341 3.93
tatis,fernando 175 .107 .771 .298 .230/.313/.299 3.28
harris,lenny 117 .086 .855 .287 .246/.310/.288 3.20
shortstop:
player ab wal con pow avg/obp/slg rc/27
rodriguez,alex 355 .126 .780 .368 .287/.376/.546 7.78
garciaparra,nomar 392 .064 .913 .342 .313/.357/.535 7.49
furcal,rafael 387 .089 .879 .335 .294/.357/.486 6.64
gonzalez,alex 316 .065 .832 .349 .290/.337/.512 6.55
tejada,miguel 375 .074 .909 .330 .300/.352/.481 6.53
cabrera,orlando 360 .086 .889 .332 .295/.356/.478 6.52
valentin,jose 298 .113 .782 .349 .273/.355/.481 6.34
renteria,edgar 357 .085 .910 .321 .292/.352/.446 6.00
ordonez,rey 117 .025 .897 .327 .294/.311/.465 5.53
martinez,ramon 164 .104 .878 .317 .278/.353/.412 5.44
berroa,angel 311 .088 .810 .333 .270/.334/.440 5.44
gonzalez,alex_s 344 .075 .802 .337 .270/.325/.451 5.43
cruz,deivi 300 .020 .927 .320 .297/.310/.450 5.36
relaford,desi 292 .079 .866 .321 .279/.335/.426 5.34
aurilia,rich 316 .071 .867 .321 .278/.329/.424 5.22
vizquel,omar 231 .105 .913 .303 .277/.352/.372 4.89
guillen,carlos 251 .107 .837 .315 .264/.342/.387 4.86
jeter,derek 231 .105 .805 .321 .258/.336/.392 4.79
uribe,juan 160 .070 .831 .320 .266/.317/.404 4.71
everett,adam 189 .074 .825 .321 .265/.319/.402 4.70
clayton,royce 305 .103 .807 .318 .257/.333/.385 4.65
woodward,chris 265 .080 .808 .321 .259/.318/.395 4.58
vizcaino,jose 143 .040 .867 .314 .273/.302/.398 4.47
bordick,mike 152 .067 .816 .319 .260/.310/.392 4.43
larkin,barry 167 .082 .874 .304 .266/.326/.362 4.34
vazquez,ramon 232 .115 .836 .305 .255/.341/.350 4.32
rollins,jimmy 390 .067 .833 .313 .261/.311/.379 4.30
perez,neifi 208 .033 .933 .301 .281/.304/.372 4.25
castro,juan 182 .037 .824 .319 .263/.290/.394 4.19
womack,tony 219 .044 .877 .306 .268/.300/.368 4.08
reyes,jose 100 .020 .860 .313 .269/.283/.389 4.07
wilson,jack 324 .064 .855 .306 .262/.309/.360 4.06
halter,shane 193 .059 .772 .323 .249/.293/.384 4.05
guzman,cristian 339 .037 .867 .302 .262/.289/.350 3.71
mclemore,mark 184 .111 .750 .310 .233/.318/.330 3.70
cora,alex 288 .056 .858 .300 .257/.298/.337 3.65
lugo,julio 241 .087 .788 .305 .240/.306/.327 3.56
santiago,ramon 239 .095 .845 .293 .247/.319/.306 3.50
lopez,felipe 197 .128 .701 .308 .216/.316/.302 3.29
hernandez,jose 315 .087 .629 .332 .209/.278/.339 3.21
nunez,abraham_o 145 .082 .800 .295 .236/.299/.298 3.15
izturis,cesar 321 .047 .863 .288 .249/.285/.296 3.02
infante,omar 202 .082 .827 .283 .234/.297/.264 2.76
outfield:
player ab wal con pow avg/obp/slg rc/27
bonds,barry 256 .264 .848 .408 .346/.519/.748 16.04
pujols,albert 348 .110 .911 .374 .340/.413/.662 11.19
edmonds,jim 307 .140 .762 .409 .312/.408/.677 10.85
sheffield,gary 324 .150 .914 .357 .326/.427/.594 10.16
griffey,ken_jr 163 .168 .730 .398 .290/.410/.609 9.50
gonzalez,luis 352 .124 .889 .353 .314/.399/.564 8.86
ramirez,manny 345 .146 .852 .357 .305/.406/.557 8.78
giles,brian 248 .200 .895 .338 .303/.442/.509 8.72
burnitz,jeromy 234 .097 .765 .388 .297/.364/.604 8.45
drew,j.d. 164 .104 .848 .361 .306/.378/.568 8.36
anderson,garret 370 .044 .870 .365 .318/.348/.599 8.24
berkman,lance 312 .175 .804 .356 .286/.411/.520 8.09
guillen,jose 258 .082 .810 .371 .301/.358/.580 8.01
floyd,cliff 276 .127 .815 .360 .294/.383/.544 7.97
dunn,adam 287 .182 .652 .399 .260/.395/.549 7.93
wells,vernon 405 .063 .874 .357 .312/.355/.569 7.92
everett,carl 307 .115 .834 .356 .297/.378/.542 7.87
hidalgo,richard 278 .109 .845 .354 .299/.376/.540 7.83
ordonez,magglio 346 .099 .867 .350 .303/.372/.538 7.76
jones,chipper 318 .152 .858 .342 .294/.401/.501 7.68
guerrero,vladimir 176 .174 .864 .337 .291/.414/.484 7.63
wilson,preston 374 .088 .773 .375 .289/.352/.565 7.55
walker,larry 292 .189 .822 .342 .281/.417/.480 7.51
nixon,trot 273 .136 .784 .360 .282/.380/.520 7.42
guiel,aaron 100 .107 .790 .363 .287/.363/.537 7.39
finley,steve 289 .116 .796 .360 .286/.369/.529 7.38
young,dmitri 325 .105 .772 .368 .285/.359/.543 7.36
davanon,jeff 157 .092 .822 .357 .293/.359/.535 7.34
gerut,jody 219 .076 .858 .350 .301/.354/.534 7.29
sosa,sammy 260 .142 .696 .382 .266/.370/.531 7.22
byrnes,eric 301 .099 .860 .345 .296/.366/.512 7.20
stairs,matt 158 .102 .785 .363 .285/.358/.531 7.18
lawton,matt 323 .129 .867 .337 .292/.384/.487 7.13
jones,andruw 343 .107 .781 .361 .282/.359/.524 7.08
mora,melvin 275 .149 .800 .348 .279/.386/.489 7.06
salmon,tim 315 .132 .825 .344 .284/.379/.490 7.01
gonzalez,juan 319 .048 .781 .373 .291/.325/.564 6.97
cruz,jose 324 .163 .787 .347 .273/.391/.477 6.93
alou,moises 347 .096 .905 .332 .300/.368/.488 6.92
millar,kevin 309 .104 .825 .348 .287/.361/.504 6.90
fick,robert 243 .090 .897 .332 .298/.361/.483 6.70
williams,bernie 195 .156 .892 .322 .287/.398/.441 6.66
mondesi,raul 329 .104 .821 .346 .284/.358/.494 6.66
beltran,carlos 277 .137 .852 .331 .282/.380/.455 6.51
cabrera,jolbert 169 .096 .799 .349 .279/.348/.492 6.41
jenkins,geoff 338 .111 .719 .368 .265/.346/.504 6.40
white,rondell 309 .078 .848 .340 .289/.344/.489 6.39
ledee,ricky 164 .137 .787 .344 .270/.370/.465 6.38
gibbons,jay 347 .092 .859 .335 .288/.353/.475 6.36
bradley,milton 293 .168 .799 .335 .268/.390/.442 6.36
banks,brian 105 .146 .733 .354 .260/.368/.469 6.31
lofton,kenny 318 .081 .912 .325 .296/.353/.463 6.28
buchanan,brian 137 .099 .752 .359 .270/.342/.496 6.27
abreu,bobby 332 .162 .765 .343 .262/.381/.449 6.26
cordero,wil 251 .125 .845 .329 .278/.369/.446 6.15
hunter,torii 337 .101 .819 .339 .278/.351/.468 6.13
encarnacion,juan 357 .058 .874 .334 .292/.333/.480 6.10
kearns,austin 292 .136 .767 .344 .264/.364/.456 6.09
payton,jay 354 .081 .873 .330 .288/.346/.463 6.07
johnson,reed 179 .082 .899 .324 .292/.350/.454 6.05
broussard,ben 174 .098 .787 .346 .272/.344/.473 6.04
stewart,shannon 303 .085 .901 .322 .290/.350/.445 5.93
tucker,michael 322 .090 .776 .348 .270/.336/.475 5.92
catalanotto,frank 349 .059 .877 .330 .289/.331/.464 5.84
cameron,mike 314 .125 .723 .353 .255/.349/.459 5.81
sanders,reggie 250 .077 .712 .367 .262/.319/.498 5.80
kielty,bobby 238 .159 .765 .336 .257/.375/.425 5.78
grissom,marquis 357 .040 .860 .335 .288/.317/.476 5.72
damon,johnny 366 .099 .888 .319 .284/.354/.428 5.72
giambi,jeremy 110 .191 .673 .350 .235/.382/.417 5.62
lee,carlos 340 .074 .826 .335 .277/.330/.456 5.62
gonzalez,raul 103 .134 .854 .318 .272/.370/.408 5.60
wilkerson,brad 277 .168 .661 .357 .236/.364/.431 5.55
perez,eduardo 164 .118 .774 .336 .260/.348/.431 5.46
mench,kevin 125 .094 .864 .321 .277/.345/.421 5.42
patterson,corey 329 .046 .766 .352 .270/.304/.483 5.42
matsui,hideki 381 .084 .858 .323 .277/.338/.427 5.38
long,terrence 291 .067 .866 .324 .280/.329/.435 5.37
green,shawn 364 .088 .797 .335 .267/.331/.440 5.36
matos,luis 183 .066 .831 .331 .275/.323/.444 5.35
garcia,karim 136 .049 .801 .341 .273/.309/.464 5.33
biggio,craig 373 .108 .820 .325 .267/.346/.417 5.31
sierra,ruben 222 .094 .829 .324 .269/.337/.417 5.20
burrell,pat 317 .134 .685 .350 .240/.342/.426 5.17
merced,orlando 155 .077 .871 .317 .276/.332/.412 5.11
jordan,brian 224 .108 .866 .313 .271/.349/.391 5.06
monroe,craig 216 .077 .759 .341 .259/.316/.439 5.05
calloway,ron 197 .066 .772 .339 .261/.310/.439 4.98
suzuki,ichiro 389 .058 .907 .312 .283/.325/.406 4.97
hollandsworth,todd 192 .072 .750 .342 .257/.311/.439 4.95
rowand,aaron 111 .067 .865 .318 .275/.323/.410 4.93
dellucci,david 145 .121 .731 .335 .245/.336/.403 4.85
grieve,ben 161 .191 .764 .315 .240/.385/.352 4.83
macias,jose 160 .064 .844 .319 .270/.317/.407 4.76
surhoff,b.j. 183 .062 .940 .303 .285/.329/.383 4.75
podsednik,scott 284 .104 .835 .313 .261/.338/.377 4.66
jones,jacque 300 .026 .790 .336 .265/.284/.438 4.58
wilson,craig 140 .130 .686 .338 .232/.332/.389 4.54
higginson,bobby 268 .127 .840 .306 .257/.351/.354 4.52
rivera,juan 114 .066 .868 .310 .270/.317/.384 4.50
crisp,coco 126 .080 .897 .303 .272/.330/.367 4.50
spencer,shane 206 .084 .752 .330 .248/.312/.399 4.47
chavez,endy 327 .044 .887 .309 .274/.306/.388 4.41
perez,timo 157 .071 .892 .304 .271/.322/.366 4.37
kotsay,mark 265 .111 .845 .305 .258/.340/.352 4.35
pierre,juan 393 .088 .941 .292 .275/.339/.339 4.28
o'leary,troy 129 .079 .837 .310 .259/.318/.368 4.26
mohr,dustan 243 .083 .700 .338 .237/.300/.397 4.22
nady,xavier 319 .073 .812 .315 .256/.310/.375 4.21
palmeiro,orlando 198 .112 .899 .294 .264/.347/.330 4.19
rolls,damian 138 .074 .775 .321 .249/.304/.379 4.15
baldelli,rocco 359 .043 .788 .324 .256/.287/.398 4.15
singleton,chris 183 .066 .836 .310 .259/.309/.369 4.15
kapler,gabe 106 .078 .783 .318 .249/.308/.371 4.10
cedeno,roger 246 .086 .813 .310 .252/.316/.358 4.08
erstad,darin 184 .080 .870 .300 .261/.320/.342 4.00
clark,brady 144 .053 .868 .303 .263/.302/.353 3.90
byrd,marlon 198 .108 .763 .311 .237/.319/.338 3.82
matthews,gary 306 .070 .817 .307 .251/.303/.349 3.82
roberts,dave 220 .095 .909 .289 .262/.332/.312 3.80
sanchez,alex 330 .043 .858 .303 .260/.292/.351 3.74
winn,randy 339 .081 .817 .303 .247/.309/.333 3.69
martin,al 151 .074 .808 .306 .247/.302/.340 3.68
christenson,ryan 116 .115 .750 .309 .232/.320/.327 3.67
kingsale,gene 120 .077 .858 .295 .253/.311/.320 3.60
shinjo,tsuyoshi 114 .058 .895 .290 .259/.302/.312 3.43
glanville,doug 143 .034 .853 .299 .255/.280/.332 3.37
bautista,danny 173 .060 .838 .297 .249/.294/.318 3.35
dye,jermaine 150 .096 .800 .297 .237/.311/.304 3.35
mccracken,quinton 140 .067 .850 .292 .248/.298/.305 3.27
crawford,carl 340 .053 .794 .302 .239/.280/.319 3.17
owens,eric 136 .035 .897 .287 .257/.284/.302 3.11
goodwin,tom 120 .055 .833 .293 .244/.286/.302 3.09
torres,andres 121 .040 .802 .299 .240/.270/.314 3.02
mcewing,joe 132 .077 .765 .287 .220/.280/.258 2.49
taylor,reggie 102 .038 .569 .337 .192/.222/.319 2.37
harris,willie 108 .044 .796 .283 .225/.260/.253 2.29
ward,daryle 106 .028 .830 .276 .229/.251/.239 2.10
d'angelo jiminez is the 9th-best second baseman in the majors. and roberto alomar is worse than mark grudzielanek, who is not even the cubs' worst player. they also have tom goodwin, jose hernandez (listed at ss), and lenny harris. i like living in chicago, but i'm glad i didn't grow up here, cause then i'd have to root for one of these teams. ugh!
i'm becoming more and more convinced that pow means nothing for pitchers. don't believe me? check out pitchers who had more than 200 innings last year:
wal con pow
johnson,randy .077 .658 .329
schilling,curt .034 .683 .333
halladay,roy .066 .821 .291
buehrle,mark .063 .859 .316
hudson,tim .068 .840 .306
colon,bartolo .074 .837 .309
oswalt,roy .068 .772 .307
moyer,jamie .062 .835 .326
vazquez,javier .054 .808 .325
zito,barry .091 .791 .322
byrd,paul .047 .858 .337
glavine,tom .088 .856 .312
sturtze,tanyon .094 .855 .330
garcia,freddy .070 .798 .331
perez,odalis .047 .817 .315
nomo,hideo .108 .773 .328
lowe,derek .067 .846 .297
ortiz,ramon .078 .807 .355
millwood,kevin .080 .787 .307
sheets,ben .081 .808 .314
hernandez,livan .078 .848 .309
mussina,mike .058 .787 .329
ortiz,russ .105 .836 .303
wood,kerry .121 .732 .325
rogers,kenny .083 .873 .313
rusch,glendon .086 .837 .331
wolf,randy .080 .786 .324
morris,matt .077 .797 .306
lawrence,brian .068 .827 .304
sabathia,cc .097 .820 .308
dempster,ryan .106 .821 .329
suppan,jeff .081 .872 .333
mulder,mark .076 .802 .318
wells,david .057 .835 .315
padilla,vicente .077 .843 .305
washburn,jarrod .072 .826 .313
clement,matt .105 .723 .318
burnett,a.j. .113 .735 .303
leiter,al .087 .787 .324
tomko,brett .070 .847 .335
rueter,kirk .063 .907 .315
redman,mark .065 .867 .302
i'll clean up the formatting later. as fun as it is to look at those con's . . . ok, look at the con's for a while. now look at the pow's. they're all the same! i used to believe that groundball pitchers allowed fewer home runs (per contact). now i'm not so sure. more later.
not a stats service
ok i know i promised to run a complete wal con pow today but i'm going back on my promise. there are no good stats anywhere. espn is gobbledygook. there's this free service at www.sportsinteractive.com, but it's crap. last i checked it was missing whole categories (eg sacrifice flies was all zeroes.) i'm sure as hell not paying for a streamer. especially since it probably has errors anyway. so that's it. i've been cutting and pasting for the past 2 hours and i'm not gonna do it anymore. if you want the numbers calculate them yourself. you ungrateful swine!
expos catchers
the expos have an interesting situation. they have 2 catchers, one righty one lefty, both 26. frank robinson has been giving them equal playing time, presumably in some kind of partial platoon. is he crazy?
michael barrett .189/.266/.373 (avg/obp/slg)
brian schneider .248/.344/.429
from these numbers it looks like schneider should start. but let's look at some numbers with meaning:
michael barrett .086 .834 .336 .280/.342/.463
brian schneider .125 .789 .338 .267/.358/.447
wal con pow followed by predicted avg/obp/slg. both have an .805 ops. whaddyaknow frank robinson knows what he's doing.
barrett will have the better career, though, due to higher con.
Sunday, July 13, 2003
gaining momentum
with the renormalization of pow all our guns are firing at once. now is the time for a full introduction and statement of purpose.
it's all about these three numbers:
wal = walks per plate appearance
con = contact per at-bat
pow = a predictor for hits per contact. the formula is .273 + .285*(tb-h)/(ab-k).
the numbers are both diagnostic and predictive tools. they break hitting down into three skills: the ability to walk, the ability to make contact, and the ability to hit the ball hard. as measures of said skills they can be used to break down a player's strengths and weaknesses.
the numbers also have the advantage that they have meaning in small sample sizes. thus they can be used to predict the results of larger sample sizes. for example, over time batting average converges to con*pow. that means after 30--40 games you can use con*pow to see how well someone has actually been playing, and how lucky or unlucky he's been. check the posts immediately below for more on these topics. also check jay jaffe's quality write-up on futiliyinfielder.com.
the numbers work for batters and pitchers. batters want them to be high; pitchers want them to be low. everyone can now be easily compared. 2002 major league averages: .100 .800 .330.
statlines:
hitter ab wal con pow avg/obp/slg* rc/27*
pitcher ip wal con era*
* predicted
i may add age. and ip may become tbf. and pow may come back for pitchers. at least for chad bradford.
mission statement: julien's baseball blog is committed to spreading baseball knowledge, and fighting baseball ignorance. there are no absolute truths, only possibilities. the goal is to consider all theories on their own terms, with no prejudice. stupidity is rooted out and ruthlessly destroyed, wherever it may be. no one is safe.
pow renormalized
so yesterday we learned that pow reliably predicts average on contact. thus, you can use con and pow to predict batting average. the formula is:
predicted avg = con*(.273 + .285*pow)
over time, avg will converge to predicted avg, plus a speed factor. well, the whole point of making up these statistics is to make things easy, so it makes sense to renormalize pow.
new pow = .273 + .285*(old pow)
now, things are really pretty:
avg = con*pow
obp = wal + (1-wal)*con*pow
slg = con*pow + iso
iso is isolated power. these modifications are just substitutions of con*pow for batting average. it allows you to make sense out of small sample sizes.
Saturday, July 12, 2003
so i've been doing some regressions, and i've discovered that hits on contact, whose formula is h/(ab-k), is easily predicted by pow:
h/(ab - k) = .273 + .285*pow
you can use this to see how lucky or unlucky a player has been, as well as to predict future performance.
what did i do with this new toy? i immediately ran the numbers for all hitters. i discovered that paul konerko has been one unlucky bastard.
paul (fo' real) .184/.258/.278/.536 (avg/obp/slg/ops)
paul (should be) .272/.337/.365/.703
and he should be even better than that. everybody knows konerko don't slug that low.
other unlucky bastards:
david bell .198/.297/.287/.584 .263/.354/.352/.706
rafael palmeiro .243/.356/.490/.846 .306/.409/.553/.963
adam dunn .208/.347/.505/.852 .262/.389/.559/.948
miguel tejada .247/.299/.427/.726 .300/.348/.480/.828
edgardo alfonzo .235/.314/.337/.651 .285/.358/.387/.745
brad ausmus .206/.278/.265/.542 .255/.322/.314/.635
pat burrell .194/.301/.384/.685 .240/.341/.430/.771
the first chunk is real, the second should be. so who are these guys? i think you know. these are exactly the guys everyone's been worried about. "what's wrong with tejada?" "what's wrong with edgardo?" etc. etc. etc. over and over again. i'll tell you what's wrong: nothing. these guys are doing what they've done for years. the difference is when they've hit the ball, it's gone to fielders. that's it.
the opposite question is who's been lucky?
melvin mora .356/.452/.576/1.028 .280/.383/.500/.883
ichiro suzuki .349/.387/.471/.857 .283/.323/.405/.729
milton bradley .331/.437/.509/.946 .269/.384/.447/.831
scott podsednik .321/.397/.435/.832 .260/.340/.374/.714
derek jeter .316/.384/.453/.837 .260/.330/.397/.727
michael young .323/.358/.469/.827 .269/.308/.415/.723
rocco baldelli .308/.334/.452/.787 .258/.285/.402/.688
again, real followed by what should be. looks like a list of al hitting leaders. one entry that deserves comment is suzuki. he gets on base with speed, which our system doesn't account for. i'm working on that. he's one of the few players where it makes a difference.
once the break comes i'll run a complete wal con pow.
i've discovered the perfect way to watch baseball. it was inspired by tim mccarver. keep it muted until the pitcher is about to throw. then unmute and hear the crack of the bat the pop of the glove the roar of the crowd then . . . when the ball is dead hit the mute button (i call it the tim mccarver button.) also works on steve stone, jeff brantley, or any other person paid to annoy you while you try to enjoy something beautiful.
Friday, July 11, 2003
my friend ch wants me to make a thing out of analyzing people's columns and pointing out what's wrong with them. but there's so much crap out there, i don't know where to begin. plus, who wants to read bad articles? i'd rather be a voice in the wilderness . . . an alternative where people can go to get good, thoughtful analysis. somebody's gotta do it. i mean, have you ever tried to find good baseball writing? it's depressing. i'm rambling.
who are the colorado announcers? one of them today* said "this whole pitch count thing, i think it hurts more than it helps things." what about that does he think is reasonable, or helpful, or correct?
just listen to these guys . . . it only takes them a couple of minutes to say something dumb.
oh there's something: the dodgers have the best pitching in baseball. better staffs than the dodgers include the yankees, cubs, and a's. it's the same thing as the 60's, when koufax and drysdale were overrated. the reason? dodger stadium.
those weren't even the worst things. i didn't hear the worst things because i muted them halfway through.
*i wrote this yesterday.
Wednesday, July 09, 2003
al central idiocy (again)
rob neyer wrote a column about the stupidity of the twins. his basic points are (1) they should have been starting johan santana all season, and (2) they should have traded some of their excess of hitting talent for some middle infielders. is he right? yes, but he didn't go far enough. the twins are even dumber than he says.
first off, let's evaluate the starting pitching:
brad radke .046 .867 .221
kenny rogers .060 .850 .126
kyle lohse .064 .808 .212
rick reed .056 .872 .177
joe mays .072 .905 .215
these guys are basically clones of each other. apparently the twins think if you throw hard you can't be a starter. but joe mays is the worst. he doesn't belong in the major leagues.
johan santana .094 .692 .168
what is the problem here? it's not like he can't start. as rob pointed out, he dominated in that role last year. it must really be that he throws too hard.
the twins think they need him in the pen. but they don't:
eddie guardado .049 .774 .236
latroy hawkins .056 .690 .164
true, those are the only 2 guys they got, but they could fill out their staff somehow. the hard part's done.
hawkins, btw, has been lights out. but guardado's the all-star. it's because he pitches in the clutch. that was sarcasm.
so that's pitching. what about position players?
luis rivas .071 .863 .114
christian guzman .032 .863 .106
rob says they suck, and he's right. but they're young (23 and 25), and while they may not develop patience, they will develop enough power to be useful. i say keep 'em, if they can play their positions. can they? guzman was 22 runs above replacement last year. for a shortstop, that's below average, but acceptable. and he should improve.
rivas, on the other hand, was only 7 above replacement last year, and 14 below the year before. that's a killer. he may never make it, and he certainly shouldn't be starting now.
so rob was right on rivas, and half-right on guzman. maybe the solution is to put guzman at second. how good is his arm? does anybody know?
now for the hitters:
bobby kielty .146 .757 .238
dustan mohr .077 .709 .230
matthew lecroy .042 .781 .288
justin morneau .055 .739 .216
michael cuddyer .110 .781 .211
todd sears .115 .759 .195
mike restovich .093 .746 .241 (AAA)
the twins are also prejudiced against patience. their best hitter is bobby kielty, and he's been jerked around like a scrub. their next three best (cuddyer, sears, restovich) are all in the minors. mohr and lecroy (and sears) are average players in their prime (age 27). they are in the middle of a 2--3 year window of usefulness. they should be traded while they still have value, perhaps for a middle infielder.
the real value here is morneau, cuddyer, and restovich. all can hit in the bigs, and at 22, 24, and 24, all have a chance to be stars. where do they grow these kids?
catchers:
a j pierzinski .041 .895 .201
joe mauer .093 .897 .086 (A)
pierzinski is the best catcher no one's heard about. but the twins should trade him at the end of the season because (1) he's at the peak of his value, and (2) mauer will be ready. the kid is 20, but he don't care. the trade is not likely though, considering their history . . .
corey koskie .130 .773 .264
doug mientkiewicz .080 .876 .202
torii hunter .093 .820 .220
jaque jones .023 .790 .215
ok corey koskie is quality. but the other three are all overpaid. the twins could have saved the dollars they threw at hunter, put kielty in center (trading defense for offense), and spent the cash on improvements elsewhere. jones and mientkiewicz are just crap. and as we saw above, easily replaceable. this is the real tragedy . . . spending lots of money on players of little value. and it's not like they have it to throw around.
rob got it right: they know how to develop, but they don't know how to win.
braves at mets, 7-8-2003
marcus giles has a chance to be better than his brother, which would be amazing.
age 25:
big bro' (1996) .136 .893 .287
ba' bro' (2003) .094 .860 .205
brian is the better batter, but it's close. defensively, however, marcus is better. he was 27 runs over replacement in 114 games in 2001-2002, and he plays second base. brian was an average center fielder in his prime; now he is an average left fielder. interestingly, both brothers were wasted early in their career. brian didn't get full pt until age 28.
marcus giles is part of one of the best fielding teams in baseball. he and rafael furcal are great on the dp. other good defenses: oakland (surprise!), seattle, st louis, la.
how 'bout that rafael furcal? .088 .885 .211 this is his breakout season. also 25, he's got contact and speed, and is developing patience and power. defense: 49 runs over replacement in 2002. best arm in the game. braves fans are pissin their pants. and will be for years.
jeromy burnitz just crushed one, over the 396 sign in left-center. way over. and he's left-handed, so that's the opposite field.
does burnitz still got it? .080 .766 .425 sho' 'nuff. last year was bad luck. course, at 34, he could fall off the cliff at any moment.
chipper jones is a bad third baseman and a good left fielder. i've been railing against the move for years, but maybe i should shut up. ok, clearly i should shut up.
vinny castilla does suck though. it's time for wilson betemit:
fat-tilla .053 .852 .208
kid (AAA) .074 .750 .120
shit, i take it back. from now on i trust cox and schuerholz.
what about mark derosa? whaddyaknow he's a quality utility infielder: .069 .777 .181.
other players i've criticized in the past:
julio franco .106 .788 .161
matt franco .048 .863 .145
mmm . . . crow.
i think joe simpson and don sutton are even worse than chip caray and steve stone. i pretty much keep them on permanent mute. everything they say drips with insipid old-southern morality. especially nauseating are their sermons about grounding out to the right side.
remember the great kevin millwood dump of 2003? perhaps there's a silver lining:
johnny estrada (AAA) .082 .920 .189
my tummy hurts.
oops, i didn't include hbp in yesterday's analysis
it was a lot easier. and it doesn't make much difference. from now on i'll only include it if it matters. once i get my daily updated supercomputer database, everything will be easier.
course, that's what they all say.
somebody else noticed the d'angelo jimenez thing
baseball prospectus . . . on the same day! oh well.
Tuesday, July 08, 2003
mailbag
charles from chicago writes in about matt stairs:
i was just watching the fatfuck and it occurred to me gods truth the wunderhampster's all natural. he would have been a fucking star in the low offense 80's. you know damn well he doesnt juice. he only played full time for two seasons. and he killed the ball. more doubles would be nice, right. but hes fucking thirtyfive. hes got oldballplayer skills. he dont make a dime, and he never has. its too bad he got lost in a high offensive era. but maybe im a punk. i mean if andre dawson was a star in the 80s stairs woulda been too. i should calculate his numbers. im toolazy. he seems to have developed late or been wasted young. probably the latter.
right you are, charles! stairs has old player skills . . . power and patience. and not speed. but he has a surprising amount of one particular young player skill . . . contact. his first significant playing time came at the age of 28, and he made contact at an .832 clip. needless to say he mashed. one shudders to think what he would have done given a full career.
don't calculate the numbers yourself, send them to your friendly neighborhood blogger!
1996 .122 .832 .325
1997 .124 .830 .342
1998 .101 .822 .263
1999 .144 .766 .359
2000 .141 .744 .280
2001 .133 .776 .273
2002 .118 .815 .286
2003 .104 .789 .302
his major-league career was entirely post-peak.
since you mentioned it, let's check out the hawk:
1977 .061 .823 .234
1978 .047 .790 .239
1979 .041 .820 .235
1980 .071 .880 .209
1981 .082 .873 .288
1982 .053 .842 .234
1983 .057 .872 .275
1984 .071 .850 .190
1985 .052 .826 .229
1986 .069 .841 .230
1987 .049 .834 .338
1988 .059 .876 .230
1989 .078 .851 .263
1990 .074 .877 .256
1991 .038 .858 .253
1992 .052 .871 .206
1993 .036 .894 .170
1994 .030 .818 .276
1995 .038 .801 .204
dawson was blessed with nigh-ichiroian contact ability, and speed. but he never developed the patience of matt stairs, nor even the power. his mvp year was one of the worst selections in the history of baseball. phil rogers probably voted for him. phil rogers probably thinks he belongs in the hall of fame.
let's go by age: dawson was 28 in 1983, but stairs was better (1996). 29 . . . stairs was better. 30, stairs. 31, stairs. 32, dawson. that was the mvp year. 33, stairs. 34, stairs. and at age 35, matt stairs is still better than andre dawson was at the same age. it gets closer if you factor in the low-offense era of the 80's, but even so, that's a startling comparison. if the hamster had been tall and thin, rather than short and fat, he would have probably got that early shot, and he would have killed. he would have been better than andre dawson.
dawson's contact, combined with his inability to take a pitch, made large piles of home runs and rbi. but the thing that drags him down, and most people ignore, is his staggering number of outs. he was not great, merely very good.
kenny williams is a big fat idiot
i know, i know, you're all saying "when is julien gonna get off his ass and analyze the white sox trades?" or maybe you're not. but i'll answer anyway: (1) i'm never going to get off my ass, and (2) the time is now, baby. those things only seem contradictory.
i haven't heard a single person accurately analyze this trade. i suppose chris kahrl did, but his site costs money. harold reynolds, peter gammons, and bobby valentine all love it. peter gammons, btw, knows nothing about baseball.
in 2 trades, williams got roberto alomar and carl everett for 6 (!) minor leaguers. it doesn't matter who the minor leaguers are. minor leaguers are young, and they get better. 6 minor leaguers is 6 chances for a cheap good major leaguer, which is way more valuable than an old, average major leaguer, which is what the white sox got 2 of. so now kenny williams is a genius.
i don't think so. let's look at some numbers:
roberto alomar .100 .850 .113
carl everett .103 .822 .318
d'angelo jimenez .106 .830 .187
carlos lee .069 .823 .219
what does this tell us? for one, roberto alomar doesn't have the power to play in the major leagues anymore. maybe that number represents some bad luck, though, so let's give him the benefit of the doubt and say he's average for a second baseman. ooh.
ok what about carl everett? it's a little better here, but of course the outfield is for hitters, so again we have an average to slightly above average player. and that pow's gonna come down.
the other two players represent the hidden cost of crappy veterans: they take the place of someone else. i didn't expect this, but it turns out jimenez is a better hitter than alomar. but alomar plays better defense, right? wrong. he used to be spectacular, and he deserves his spot in the hall, but defense is the first thing to go, and at 35, it's gone. in 2002, he was only 16 runs above replacement. jimenez' number was 19, in half a season. factor in jimenez' status as already a good young major leaguer, and he's way more valuable than alomar. he's even more valuable than the prospects they traded to get alomar.
the everett situation is better, if you could call it that. yes, he outhits lee. but just barely, and i'd rather give the 27-year-old a chance to improve, than the 32-year-old a chance to fall off a cliff. so not only is everett not worth 3 prospects, but he's not worth the value lost in benching carlos lee. what's that you say? he's gonna play center? yeah, right.
everett will play left, or dh, leaving the scraps to el caballo. i should've put paul konerko on the list. he's the real loser here. and who's in center? none other than willie harris. they like him because he hustles. or wears his socks high, or something, because he can't hit. center field should be manned by joe borchard, or aaron rowand, or both.
paul konerko .089 .894 .104
joe borchard (tiny sample size)
aaron rowand .048 .860 .163
willie harris .029 .800 .037
white sox fans shouldn't run out on the field, they should run up to the gm's box. and club kenny williams.
speaking of the mets, did anyone see bill murray in the broadcast booth last night? he knows how to say "i love you can i borrow some money" in korean and he is funny. he should call games for a living. or for free; i don't care.
questec and the kids
the mets have been getting surprisingly adequate performances from kids this year, most notably ty wigginton, jason phillips, and jae seo. they are also a questec park. is there a correlation? i'm gonna say there is.
what does questec do? it makes umps call the same game for every player. watch as many games as i do and you'll realize that the non-questec zone is shorter and fatter than the questec zone. another thing umps like to do is give borderline calls to veterans. everybody admits it . . . players, umps . . . they joke about it. so young batters feel like they have to swing at everything, and young pitchers feel like they have to groove it down the middle.
it wouldn't be hard to do a study of young players' k rates in and out of questec parks. if anyone does one, let me know.
Wednesday, July 02, 2003
al pitching
ok time for the previously promised analysis of american league starters.
era wal con pow
esteban loaiza 2.18 .068 .780 .141
pedro martinez 2.74 .079 .717 .128
tim hudson 2.97 .074 .843 .099
jamie moyer 3.01 .090 .819 .160
gil meche 3.14 .079 .813 .157
barry zito 3.17 .105 .835 .149
mark mulder 3.25 .061 .840 .149
mike mussina 3.29 .044 .743 .111
roger clemens 3.36 .071 .723 .180
david wells 3.40 .024 .873 .141
you know, i just can't figure out why the yankees, mariners, and a's win so many games. any ideas?
i'm so funny. there's basically two ways a pitcher can be good: not walk people, and strike people out. those on the list with high cons, hudson, moyer, meche, zito, and mulder, have benefitted from good defense. but not david wells. he's a freak. the yankees on the list have succeeded despite their defense.
the best guys here are loaiza, martinez, mussina, and clemens. is clemens really gonna retire this year?
who else should make the list?
era wal con pow
tim wakefield 4.72 .116 .776 .199
andy pettitte 4.78 .062 .795 .180
roy halladay 3.70 .048 .805 .218
john lackey 5.47 .083 .814 .225
jeremy bonderman 5.06 .073 .815 .204
ted lilly 4.83 .085 .815 .234
kyle lohse 3.96 .060 .813 .199
sidney ponson 3.96 .078 .815 .138
corey lidle 5.32 .056 .840 .198
john thomson 5.90 .052 .848 .251
all of these guys have had bad pow luck, except ponson. you gotta feel for thomson, with that 5.90 era. and whaddyaknow lilly has been the best a's pitcher this year.
what happened to barry zito?
2001 .103 .747 .114
2002 .093 .786 .152
2003 .105 .835 .149
not a good trend. he didn't deserve the cy last year, btw. pedro did:
2002 .055 .679 .109
are you kidding me?
eric young .104 .917 .193
players with contact and speed last a long time, and sometimes develop late-career power.
for sammy sosa, it happened when he started taking pitches.
alex gonzalez .069 .834 .288
which one? the florida alex gonzalez. he's never hit before, but all of a sudden he's a masher. a number of players have come out of nowhere this year, all due to newfound power. examples are javy lopez and eric young. must be something in the water. oh wait they don't drink water. they drink juice(tm).
agonz is young, actually, so it could be natural improvement. his line isn't too far out from previous years:
1999 .046 .798 .192
2000 .037 .800 .149
2001 .072 .792 .159
2002 .096 .788 .126
last year's pow is low because of small sample size (151 ab).
mike remlinger .168 .605 .307
anybody notice the rate at which mike has been remlinging? 12.97 k/9. is it worth the walks? the short answer is yes.
